Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 9, 2019

The Dow Is Set to Drop Because Boeing Is Still a Problem

But for now, there’s nothing, and it just might stay that way. “Unless we get a surprise U.S./China trade headline (and chatter there seems to be…” Click here to read the article.

Why The Reserve Bank of India Matters to You

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • U.S./China Trade Update – Nothing Has Changed (And That’s Good)
  • Why the Reserve Bank of India Matters to You (And Your Clients)

Futures are modestly lower on momentum from Thursday’s declines following mixed economic data overnight.

German exports beat estimates and rose 1.5% vs (E) -0.3%, finally giving the EU a good economic data point.  But, Japanese Household Spending rose 0.1% vs. (E) 1.0% so the economic news wasn’t all good.

There was no notable geo-political or trade related news overnight and given there are no economic reports today, and only one Fed speaker (Daly at 1:15 p.m. ET), focus will remain on any new U.S./China trade headlines.  That could lead to some more volatility, but as long as Mnuchin and Lighthizer are going to China next week (which it appears they still are) then we’re still getting progress on a U.S./China trade deal.

Is Canada the Biggest Trade Winner?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Canada the Clear Winner from the New NAFTA?

S&P futures are decidedly lower while most international markets were down overnight thanks to Italian political/budget fears.

The 2.4% budget deficit Italy proposed to the EU was not well received yesterday and the mention of “Italy’s own currency” by a notable law maker overnight sent Italian bond yields to more than four year highs.

Meanwhile safe haven money flows are pushing Treasury and Bund yields lower and the dollar is up to fresh multi-week highs which will quickly become a headwind on US shares again in the near term.

Today, there are no notable US economic reports but there are two Fed speakers to watch: Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), and more importantly Chair Powell (12:00 p.m. ET). Otherwise, focus will be on Europe and any developments with Italy’s budget or further discussions of Italy’s “own currency.”

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