Potential Bearish Gamechangers?
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Are Strikes and Government Shutdowns Potential Bearish Gamechangers?
Futures are bouncing slightly after the BOJ rate decision met expectations while economic data was “ok” overnight.
The BOJ made no change to policy and President Ueda was not hawkish in his comments, easing a bit of the hawkish anxiety that’s weighed on markets this week.
Economically, the EU flash composite PMI beat estimates (47.1 vs. (E) 46.5) although it’s still in contraction territory.
Today focus will be on the flash PMIs and expectations are as follows: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.8), Flash Service PMI (E: 50.2). Markets need a Goldilocks number of a solid (but not great) headline readings, and stable price indices. If we get the opposite (weak headline and higher price indices) that’ll be another stagflation signal and expect the selling to continue.
We also have two Fed speakers today, Cook (8:50 a.m. ET) and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.
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