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Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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Rising Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Dow, S&P 500 flip positive to start week after Hamas attacks Israel

The attack by Hamas on Israel raised fears of a broader conflict, sending crude prices jumping. And spurring haven-related support for gold, the dollar and U.S. Treasury futures. The cash Treasury market is closed for the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday.

“The human tragedy and geopolitical implications aside, from a market standpoint the attack matters because rising geopolitical tensions mean higher oil prices and the higher oil goes, the stronger the additional headwind on stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on October 9th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on July 17th, 2023

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Why U.S. stock-market investors shouldn’t expect positive economic data to push S&P 500 materially higher

While it’s undeniable that fears of a hard landing, inflation and hawkish Fed have not materialized, the reality is that the current level of the S&P 500 largely factors all of that in, so last week’s CPI and PPI reports didn’t provide the market with a new positive catalyst, but instead just reinforced what was already widely assumed,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Monday note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on April 18th, 2023

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Why bears can’t keep the stock market down despite bad news

As such, the pain trade has been higher for all of 2023 and that’s helping support stocks despite decidedly mixed fundamentals (and mixed is being generous),” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research wrote. Click here to read the full article.

Three Catalysts in Focus

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Can Break the S&P 500 Out of the Current Trading Range? Three Candidates
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways (Fairly “Goldilocks”)
  • OPEC+, Oil Prices, Inflation, the Economy, and Fed Policy – They’re All Tied Together

U.S. stock futures are tracking European markets higher this morning thanks to a cooler-than-expected inflation print in Europe while news flow was otherwise mostly quiet overnight.

Economically, Eurozone PPI for February came in at -0.5% vs. (E) -0.3% m/m but a still lofty 13.2% vs. (E) 13.5% y/y. Despite the still elevated annual figure, the lower than expected print is bolstering risk assets this morning.

Today, there are three economic reports to watch in the U.S. including: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 14.9 million), Factory Orders (E: -0.4%), and JOLTS (E: 10.4 million). Investors will want to see more evidence of slowing growth and a weakening labor market to reinforce hopes for both a less-hawkish Fed and soft landing in order for the recent stock market resilience to continue.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker to watch late in the day: Mester (6:45 p.m. ET).

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on September 21st, 2022

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U.S. oil futures settle lower as Fed rate hike feeds worries about a recession

Higher rates are restrictive in nature, and likely to become a headwind on consumer spending including that on refined products like gasoline and diesel…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in S&P Global on September 19th, 2022

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Persistent inflation to push Fed to tighten more, delay rate peak

From a Fed standpoint, obviously they cannot even think about stopping until this [inflation] number gets down to something more tenable…said Tom Essaye, a trader and founder of financial research firm The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on June 27th, 2022

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Oil prices end higher for a second session as better-than-expected U.S. economic data ease demand worries

Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Taper Outlook: Good, Bad, and Ugly Scenarios

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It’s Not When, But How the Fed Tapers That Matters

U.S. stock futures are tracking most global equity markets higher this morning as Chinese tech shares recovered from recent declines and trader focus is shifting ahead to the Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium later in the week.

Economically, German GDP rose 1.6% vs. (E) 1.5% in the second quarter, easing some concerns that the global economic recovery is losing momentum.

Today, there is one economic report due out: New Home Sales (E: 700K) but it shouldn’t materially move markets and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and given the increased sensitivity towards taper plans and interest rates right now, the outcome could move markets in the afternoon.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com on June 15, 2021

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Macro Fireworks: Stock Market Soars to New ATH While Bitcoin Awaits the Breach of An Important Level

In order for Bitcoin to resume that rally, I think you’re going to need to see more widespread…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Marketplace on May 26, 2021

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The Dow at 125: Why it endures

That can tend to let the Dow be more volatile. It can also be skewed more by one stock, it gives you a glimpse of the economy that other indexes don’t. And the fact that companies…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.