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Powell Speech Cheat Sheet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Topics to Watch During Powell’s Speech Today
  • More Signs of Disinflation
  • Chart – Has the Dollar Bottomed?

Stock futures are cautiously higher as traders look ahead to Powell’s speech today while international markets were mixed following some key economic data overnight.

The Eurozone HICP Flash (their CPI equivalent) fell to 10.0% in November from 10.7% in October (E: 10.6%), offering fresh evidence that inflation may have finally peaked in Europe while China’s Composite PMI was worse than expected. The soft data in China however was shrugged off thanks to continued optimism about easing Covid restrictions by the government.

Today is lining up to be a busy day with markets focusing on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 200K), GDP (E: 2.7%), International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.6B), JOLTS (E: 10.4M), and Pending Home Sales (E: -5.0%) all due out this morning.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers through midday: Bowman (8:50 a.m. ET) and Cook (12:35 p.m. ET) before focus will turn to Powell’s speech in the early afternoon (1:30 p.m. ET) which will be the primary potential market catalyst today.

Powell Speech Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell Speech Preview

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet night ahead of Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. this morning.

Economic data was slightly underwhelmed as the German Gfk Consumer Climate declined to –36.5 vs. (E) -31.

The UK increased the electricity price cap for households by 80%, underscoring the impact of surging natural gas prices.

Today focus will be on the Powell speech at 10:00 a.m. and the market will be looking for Powell to tacitly endorse the “Fed Pivot” theory that’s helped stocks rally.  Away from Powell, we also get two notable inflation readings via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 4.7% y/y) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.1), but it will take a material surprise from either report to move markets today.