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Sevens Report: U.S.-Iran Talks Leave Geopolitical Risks Elevated

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Tyler Richey says stalled negotiations keep markets on edge despite open channels.

Oil markets are on edge over elevated risks of a U.S. military strike against Iran this weekend

Geopolitical risks remain largely unchanged following the latest U.S.-Iran discussions, according to Sevens Report Research. Co-editor Tyler Richey said the talks failed to deliver progress on the core issues facing both sides, leaving tensions at roughly the same level as before the meetings.

Richey noted that while the lack of breakthroughs is disappointing, the fact that negotiations did not collapse entirely still matters for markets. Open communication channels reduce the odds of an immediate escalation, but they do not eliminate near-term risks.

With tensions still elevated, Richey said the possibility of military action cannot be dismissed, particularly over a short time horizon. That uncertainty helps explain why many traders are reluctant to hold short positions heading into the weekend, when headline risk is highest.

He added that newly announced sanctions are best viewed as incremental pressure designed to accelerate negotiations rather than a signal of imminent conflict. For now, Sevens Report believes geopolitical uncertainty will remain a background risk factor rather than a dominant market driver unless energy supplies are directly threatened.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Why the SWIFT Ban and Other Sanctions Matter

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the SWIFT Ban and Other Sanctions Matter
  • Update on Value/Growth Rotation

It is a moderately risk-off morning with stock futures down just over 0.5% while Brent crude prices have jumped back above $100/barrel and the 10-Yr Treasury yields have dipped below 1.75% amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Western allies added more sanctions on Russian financial institutions overnight while a 40-mile long Russian military convoy continued to make progress towards Kyiv however high-level diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume today.

Looking at the calendar, there are two economic reports to watch today: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 58.0) and Construction Spending (E: -0.2%) as well as one Fed speaker: Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET).

But, the market will remain largely focused on the Russia/Ukraine conflict and whether or not there is any progress in the ongoing diplomatic talks. As has been the case since last week, any deterioration in the conflict will result in further risk-off money flows across asset classes while any sense of de-escalation could support a continued relief rally.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on February 22, 2022

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The Russia Issue Is Hurting the Stock Market. How Things Could Get Worse.

Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.  Click here to read the full article.