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Seeing the Forest for the Trees in Today’s Market

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Seeing the Forest for the Trees in Today’s Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Seeing the Forest for the Trees in Today’s Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Expectations for a Soft-Landing Shift This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Week:  ISM PMIs and the Jobs Report Friday

Futures are little changed as Congress passed a short-term funding bill and avoided a shutdown while global manufacturing data largely met expectations.

The House passed the Senate’s “continuing resolution” to fund the government over the weekend, avoiding a shutdown.  However, funding only lasts until November 17th.

The Chinese Sept. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 vs. (E) 50.0 while EU and UK readings were in-line with estimates.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  The key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.8) and markets will want to see this number move closer to 50 and hint at an end to the manufacturing recession.  A further drop from here would be an incremental negative.  On the Fed, we hear from Powell & Harker at 11:00 a.m. and Williams at 1:30 p.m. and any hints from them that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes will be welcomed by markets.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Our Q3 ’23 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis

Also, you can view our Q2 ’23 Quarterly Letter here

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here. 

Why Did Stocks Drop Yesterday?

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Why Did Stocks Drop Yesterday? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

    • Bottom Line – Why Did Stocks Drop Yesterday?
    • Chart: S&P 500 Tests Key Support
    • Economic Takeaways: Case-Shiller Home Price Index & Consumer Confidence
    • Philadelphia Fed Service PMI Turns Negative, Price Readings Elevated (Stagflation)

    Stock futures are bouncing back modestly and bonds are stable this morning. This is amid improvement in Chinese economic data while data in Europe was less encouraging.

    Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits were down -11.7% y/y in August. But that was up from -15.5% y/y in July suggesting government stimulus efforts may be stabilizing the economy. The property development sector remains a major source of uncertainty.

    Meanwhile, in Europe, Eurozone M3 Money Supply declined more than expected, down -1.3% vs. (E) -1.0%. Which underscores tightening financial conditions in the EU amid aggressive policy measures by the ECB.

    Today, the calendar is fairly light as there is just one economic report to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -0.3%) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

    In the afternoon there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m.. ET, and as usual, if there is any meaningful move in yields, it could impact equity markets (stable or easing yields would be welcomed by equity bulls, new highs would pressure stocks and other risk assets).

Sevens Report Q3 ’23 Quarterly Letter Coming October 2nd.

The Q3 2023 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Monday, October 2nd.

The S&P 500 just hit the lowest level since March amid concerns about Fed rate hikes, a rebound in inflation and a possible recession.

Now is the perfect time to provide a value-add market update for clients and ensure they have the right expectations heading into the fourth quarter.

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q2 ’23 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link. To subscribe please email: info@sevensreport.com.

Why stocks dropped yesterday

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here. 

What Drove the Q1 Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Drove the Q1 Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does A Soft Landing Become More Likely?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM Manufacturing today, Jobs Report Friday.

Futures are little changed as oil prices are higher following a surprise OPEC+ production cut, while investors digest the recent rally.

OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut of 1.16 million bpd and oil rallied as much as 8% on the news, although it has backed off those highs (up about 5% currently).

Economically, the EU and UK manufacturing PMIs were generally in line with expectations and aren’t moving markets (47.3 for the EU and 47.9 for the UK).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.5) and oil prices, and a continued steep rise in either (so a hotter than expected PMI or oil moving sharply higher from current levels) will be a headwind on stocks.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Our Q1 ’23 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis

You can view our Q4 ’22 Quarterly Letter here

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Yield Curves and Real Rates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Yield Curves and Real Rates

Markets are trading risk-on this morning after reported progress in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian officials said that the “primary objectives” of the latest round of peace talks with Ukraine have been completed and a deal may be announced in the coming hours which is driving stocks higher globally.

Looking into today’s session, there are a few economic reports due to be released: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), Consumer Confidence (E: 107.0), and JOLTS (E: 11.10M) while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Williams (9:00 a.m. ET), Harker (10:45 a.m. ET), and Bostic (6:30 p.m. ET).

There is also a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and more specifically impact the 10s-2s yield curve spread which has compressed down to single digits this morning.

Bottom line, the market’s primary focus is on Russia-Ukraine peace talks today and any meaningful progress towards a ceasefire will continue to support risk-on money flows while investors will watch economic data and Fed speak for any further signs that shift to a more aggressive policy stance is beginning to hurt growth.

 

Sevens Report Q1’22 Quarterly Letter Coming April 1st

The Q1 2022 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Friday, April 1.

With several key macro issues coming to a head over the next three months, we believe the second quarter could be just as volatile as the first quarter.

We deliver the letter on the first business day of the new quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q4 ’21 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.