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Powell Speech Preview

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Powell Speech Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell Speech Preview:  Good, Bad & Ugly
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly higher following a quiet night of news as investors await Fed Chair Powell’s speech later today.

Earnings overnight were mixed with TSLA (down 5% after hours) missing estimates while NFLX (up 14% after hours) posted strong results.

Today will be a very busy day of data and Fed speak.  The key event today is Powell’s speech at noon, and to keep things simple, if Powell repeats the sentiment that the spike in Treasury yields has done the Fed’s job for it and, as such, another rate hike is unlikely, that should be positive for stocks and bonds.  If he does not repeat that sentiment and leaves the door open for another hike in 2023, that will be a negative.

Outside of Powell, we get several important economic reports today including:  Jobless Claims (E: 211K), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (E: -7.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.900M) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data to support a bounce.

Back to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today other than Powell, including Jefferson (9:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:20 p.m. ET), Barr (1:30 p.m. ET), Bostic (4:00 p.m. ET); Harker (5:30 p.m. ET) and Logan (7:00 p.m. ET) although their comments will be overshadowed by Powell, so they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings continue and important reports today include:  T ($0.63), TSM (1.16), AAL (0.26), WAL ($1.91) and CSX ($0.42).

Powell Speech Preview

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Economic Breaker Panel: January Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sevens Report Economic Breaker Panel: January Update

Stock futures are trading higher as investors digest strong earnings and look ahead to the inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President today.

NFLX is up 13%+, testing record highs in premarket trade after the company released strong Q4 results yesterday.

Economically, European inflation data was largely inline with expectations and not moving markets this morning.

There will be a lot of moving pieces in the market today as investors focus on the inauguration ceremonies for incoming President Joe Biden, however there are multiple other catalysts on the calendar.

On the economic front, there is one report due to be released this morning: Housing Market Index (E: 86) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.

Turning to earnings, there are several notable releases ahead of the bell including: PG ($1.51), UNH ($2.39), FAST ($0.33), and MS ($1.29), while UAL (-$6.37) AA ($0.12), and DFS ($2.27) will all report after the close.

Bottom line, barring any materially negative surprises from earnings or economic data today, optimism surrounding the stimulus plans of the incoming administration should help markets maintain this week’s risk-on tone into the back half of the holiday-shortened week.

What’s Next for the Oil Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Oil Market Outlook: Supply, Demand, and COVID-19
  • Economic Data Takeaways

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as investors weigh a fresh record number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. against economic data that was mostly upbeat this week.

NFLX is notably down 7% in pre-market trade after the company reported disappointing Q2 results yesterday.

Economically, Eurozone HICP met expectations in June, rising 0.3% but the report did not materially move markets overnight.

Today,  investor focus will be on earnings early with three more notable financial companies reporting before the bell: ALLY ($0.33), BLK ($6.90), and CFG ($0.17).

Then there are two economic reports due out this morning: Housing Starts (E: 1.190M), and Consumer Sentiment (E: 79.3) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Bottom line, markets began to trade with a more cautious tone over the course of the week but for now, upbeat economic data has been able to offset rising new cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and as long as underlying sentiment remains largely optimistic, stocks should be able to maintain or extend gains into the weekend today.