Posts

Powell Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell Testimony Preview
  • “This Week’s Sign the Apocalypse is Upon Us”
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Analysis

Futures are lower with most international markets as investors look ahead to Powell’s testimony while another EU company, PageGroup, issued a profit warning overnight.

Economically, Chinese June CPI was inline but PPI dropped from 0.6% to 0.0% vs. (E) 0.2% which rekindled deflationary concerns and underscored pressures on the Chinese manufacturing sector.

Today, there are no economic reports but even if there were, focus would be primarily on the Fed anyway.

Powell’s Testimony before Congress is clearly the main event as investors look for further clues on the future of monetary policy. His written comments are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET before he begins to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Bullard also speaks at 1:30 p.m. ET today and the June FOMC Meeting Minutes will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Lastly, there is a 10 Year T-Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and depending on the results (demand metrics and yields) a reactive move in the bond market could influence stock trading in the midst of all the Fed events.

Rotation to Value

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Evidence of the Rotation to Value

US futures are lower again this morning and most overseas markets declined overnight thanks to a continued rise in bond yields and concerns about global economic growth.

The IMF reduced global growth expectations for 2018 from 3.9% to 3.7% citing the escalating trade tensions between the US and China as a potentially significant headwind.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index eased to 107.9 vs. (E) 108.0 last month, but remains near a record high.

With the NFIB already out, there are no additional economic reports in the US today but there are two Fed speakers to watch, one shortly after the open: Evans (10:00 a.m. ET) and one later this evening: Williams (9:15 p.m.ET).

That will leave investor focus on the pace of rising bond yields and tech weakness. And unless we see some moderation in the bond rout and some stabilization in tech, it will be hard for stocks to move meaningfully higher today.