The disappointing Chinese economic data offset an increase in Russia/Ukraine tensions to push commodity prices lower on Monday, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. “A Chinese economic slowdown, if it happens, will add to demand concerns” they said. Click here to read the full article.
The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Natural gas is the largest source of electricity in the U.S., at roughly 40%, so when temperatures heat up in the summertime, demand for power to run air conditioning units rises in lockstep. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly weaker following a rally in oil prices and a continued rise in bond yields overnight.
Oil rallied 2% after Russia announced it was voluntarily reducing output by 500k bpd while OPEC+ did not signal any intention to increase output to offset the reduction.
Global bond yields moved higher after Nikkei reported Kazuo Ueda will become the next BOJ governor, and not the ultra-dove Masayoshi Amamiya (who was expected).
Today focus will remain on the data and specifically University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 65.0) and the inflation expectations in the report (any further decline will be positive for stocks). We also get two Fed speakers: Waller (12:30 p.m. ET) and Harker (4:00 p.m. ET) and markets will want to see if they echo the hawkish tone from regional Fed presidents this week.
“Warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the country is suppressing heating demand, domestic production remains at record highs, and inventories are seasonably healthy,” explains analyst Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, of the recently collapsing market for natural gas. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
There is a tentative risk-on tone to trading this morning as U.S. equity futures track global shares higher thanks to new stimulus measures in China and easing natural gas prices in Europe.
The PBOC announced new measures to help stabilize the yuan and bolster the economy in the face of renewed Covid lockdowns and recent signs of slowing growth which was welcomed by markets overnight.
In Europe, German Manufacturers Orders fell -1.1% vs. (E) -0.4% but that is helping dial back some of the recently more hawkish policy expectations ahead of this week’s ECB meeting.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: ISM Services Index (E: 55.4), and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
That should leave the focus on currency and bond markets in the U.S. if both the dollar and short-duration yields can stabilize, and not move materially higher, then stocks should be able to make an attempt to stabilize after Friday’s late session reversal lower.
Additionally, if we see natural gas prices in Europe continue to pull back from Friday and yesterday’s rise, that should help the risk-on mood in markets persist as the Nord Stream 1 halt was the main catalyst for stocks rolling over on Friday.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet night ahead of Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. this morning.
Economic data was slightly underwhelmed as the German Gfk Consumer Climate declined to –36.5 vs. (E) -31.
The UK increased the electricity price cap for households by 80%, underscoring the impact of surging natural gas prices.
Today focus will be on the Powell speech at 10:00 a.m. and the market will be looking for Powell to tacitly endorse the “Fed Pivot” theory that’s helped stocks rally. Away from Powell, we also get two notable inflation readings via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 4.7% y/y) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.1), but it will take a material surprise from either report to move markets today.
Demand concerns are now the dominant influence on the global energy market and even though supply worries will persist with the Russia-Ukraine war, we will need to see evidence of demand stabilizing for the oil market to begin to find a near-term bottom,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
The nation’s refineries simply don’t have the ability to absorb those new barrels of oil suddenly hitting the market and therefore, physical refined product markets remain tight and prices are still elevated…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The nation’s refineries simply don’t have the ability to absorb those new barrels [of oil] suddenly hitting the market and therefore, physical refined product markets remain tight and prices are still elevated…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
