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New York Empire State Manufacturing Release Affect on Oil

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A “Terrible” New York Empire State Manufacturing Release: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices finish lower as U.S. crude supplies mark a 2-week climb of more than 17 million barrels

WTI crude-oil futures had been trading lower ahead of the inventory data as investors digested a “terrible” New York Empire State Manufacturing release, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

The economic data “poured some cold water on soft economic landing hopes, while the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has yet to have a meaningful impact on the global oil markets,” he told MarketWatch.

“As such, the fear-bid in oil has been slowly but steadily unwinding over the last month,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 15th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stock Rally, 1o-Yr Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy

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Stock Rally, Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

But the subsequent rally for stocks after the Nov. 1 Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 6% over eight days, and a 50 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield were “overdone and not governed by facts,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.
“Meanwhile, if we think about what the Fed said last week, namely that the rise in the 10-year treasury yield was doing the Fed’s work for it and as a result they may not have to hike rates, then the short/sharp decline in the 10-year yield we’ve seen could essentially remove the reason for the Fed not having to hike rates — and that could put a rate hike back on the table!” he wrote. “That’s essentially what Powell reminded us of yesterday and that, along with the poor Treasury auction, pushed yields higher,” setting up pressure on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 11th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Treasury Yield

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Important To Watch The S&P 500 Index’s Support Zone

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there’s no way The Fed Can Get Dovish: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Fed day is here. Here are important technical levels to watch for stocks, bonds, and VIX

It is important to watch the S&P500 index’s support zone from 4,050 to 4,170, where the index spent most of April and May, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research. 
On the other hand, “if policy makers deliver a dovish message and signal the hiking cycle is indeed ‘over’ then a relief rally could see stocks rise rapidly back towards the October highs,” according to Essaye.
The first important technical resistance level to watch is 4,225, while beyond that, investors should keep an eye on the level of 4,330, where the index saw a mid-October reversal. For the 2023 stock market rally to resume, the S&P 500 has to beat its October high of 4,377, Essaye wrote. 
“There is growing evidence that the VIX may be forming a near-term top as the ‘fear gauge’ did not close at new October highs last week despite the S&P 500 falling to new multi -month lows,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Index’s Support Zone

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Tighter Financial Conditions

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Tighter Financial Conditions: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices finish lower with concerns of an economic slowdown raising prospects for a supply surplus

The initial drop in oil upon the release of the Fed decision “seemed to be in reaction to the addition of the phrase ‘tighter financial conditions’ for households and businesses,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research told MarketWatch. The added wording “implies demand is likely to suffer in the near-to-medium term.”
“With longer-term demand expectations fading with the latest string of disappointing global economic reports we received this week, there is growing concern the physical markets will tip into a surplus in the months or quarter ahead,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Powell’s Speech Main Takeaway

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The Main Takeaway From Powell’s Speech: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on MSN

The Stock Rally Won’t Resume Any Time Soon. Here’s Why.

As Sevens Reports Tom Essaye put it, “The main takeaway from Powell’s speech was that in this situation, there’s no way the Fed can get dovish.”
Bulls have pointed to ongoing strength in the labor market as evidence that the economy is still humming, and fodder for the rally. However, as plenty of Federal Reserve watches noted after Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks last week, the central bank doesn’t appear inclined to let rates fall.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on October 23rd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Powell’s Speech

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MSN on June 30th, 2023

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Oil futures climb, with global prices registering the first monthly gain of the year but a 4th straight quarterly decline

Like most assets, right now oil is beholden to the economy, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Friday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN on February 10, 2022

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Will hot inflation data kill the stock-market bounce? What investors want to see

Inflation has to stop going up. I know that sounds overly simplistic, but the bottom line is that for the past several months, markets and the Fed have seen ‘hints’ of a peak in inflation pressures, yet that wasn’t…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN Money on December 24, 2019

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“Stocks are grinding relentlessly higher into year-end on continued momentum from the positive resolution of four key events: A phase one trade deal…” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.

New York Stock Exchange

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN on October 30, 2019

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“People had aggressively pushed cyclicals higher over the past two weeks,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “But in order for that to work out beyond the short term, we need to see economic data get better, and that’s not really happening.” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Headshot