Markets look ahead to key economic data in the…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research before the jobs report hit the wires. Click here to read the full article.
In order for Bitcoin to resume that rally, I think you’re going to need to see more widespread…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader. Click here to read the full article.
The market still views the Fed as the ‘most dovish’ global central bank, and as long as that’s the case, the dollar will have…said Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“We’ve seen a rollover in a lot of the momentum plays in the market — not just Bitcoin, but Tesla…” Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter, said by phone. Click here to read the full article.
The bottom line is that the market does expect something more” from the central bank, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s latest newsletter. That doesn’t mean more quantitative easing, but “it does mean some sort…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed as markets look past President Trump’s executive orders on economic stimulus following an otherwise quiet weekend.
With stimulus talks again at an impasse, President Trump issued several executive orders over the weekend to provide economic stimulus, including $300/week in federal unemployment and a payroll tax deferral.
But, for a multitude of reasons (legal and otherwise) none of these actions will have any immediate economic impact, so the market still expects a stimulus bill to be passed (but now in the coming weeks, not immediately).
Today there’s one labor market number, JOLTS (E: 5.288M), but that shouldn’t move markets, and instead focus will be on stimulus. Today, the key is that both the Democrats and Republicans signal they are going to continue negotiations on the stimulus bill. If the rhetoric implies the talks have stalled completely, that that will likely pressure stocks.
“We need global growth to stabilize to help propel stocks higher from here. The currency and bond markets continue to flash large and…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures have turned negative in pre-market trading as bond yields continue to bleed lower with the benchmark 10-yr yield hitting fresh lows in the mid-2.30% range overnight.
Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits were down -14.0% YTD, falling from -1.9% in December.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was the latest central bank to turn decidedly dovish overnight citing concerns about the global economy while Brexit angst also persists amid new votes in Parliament today.
The list of catalysts in the Wall Street session is a short one today with only one economic report due out: International Trade (E: -$57.4B) and just one Fed speaker later in the evening: George (7:00 p.m. ET).
That will again leave the market primarily focused on the bond market and to a lesser degree the dollar. Recession fears are front and center right now with Fed funds futures pricing in more than 80% odds of a rate cut in the next 10 months as of this writing.
Bottom line, without a rebound in yields and at least a steady dollar (a pullback would be more favorable) then it will be very difficult for stocks to mount any sort of rally today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower thanks to continued momentum from Friday’s sell off. Outside of politics, it was a generally quiet weekend.
Economically, we got an upside surprise from German IFO Business Expectations, which rose to 95.6 vs. (E) 94.0 and that offsets a small part of last week’s bad PMIs (but not nearly enough to address growth concerns).
Politically, the release of the Mueller report dominated headlines over the weekend, but as has been the case for nearly two years, this topic is not an influence on markets.
There are no economic reports today and no material Fed commentary, so focus today will be on whether the S&P 500 can stabilize and hold 2800. The Mueller report will continue to dominate media coverage, but again this simply isn’t an influence on stocks, Treasuries or the dollar.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following more disappointing European economic data.
EU flash PMIs were a disappointment again, as the composite EU PMI fell to 51.3 vs. (E) 51.4. Manufacturing was especially bad as the EU flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 vs. (E) 49.5, a five year low.
Today the highlight will be the Flash Composite PMI (E: 55.2). That number was always going to be important, but it’s even more important now following the disappointing EU economic data, as markets will need more proof the U.S. can withstand failing global growth to continue this rally. Other events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 5.080M), Wholesale Trade (E: 0.1%) and Fed speaker Bostic (9:30 p.m. ET) but none of those should move markets.
