Posts

S&P 500 Back At 2900: What’s Changed Since October

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • S&P 500 Back At 2900:  What’s Changed Since October.
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (More Important Chinese Data)
  • I’ll be joining Liz Claman on Countdown to the Closing Bell at 3:55 p.m. today on Fox Business to Discuss the Markets.  Tune In!

Futures are flat following a quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s rally.

Expectations of a U.S./China trade deal continue to rise, with some anticipating an announcement this week.  The WSJ, Reuters and others had positive articles this morning.  But, as a reminder, the market has already priced in a deal, so the real focus of any announcement will be when tariffs are removed, and the sooner, the better.

There was no notable international or U.S. economic data overnight.

Today there is one notable economic report, Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 6.8) and one Fed speaker, Evans at 8:30 a.m. & noon.  Given that somewhat light calendar, focus will be on earnings, and some numbers we are watching today include: C ($1.78), GS ($5.05), JBHT ($1.25).  If data and earnings are solid, this rally can continue.

Can The S&P 500 Breakthrough 2900?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Next Positive Catalyst For Stocks (Potentially)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Chinese Exports The Big Number This Week)

Futures are slightly weaker following a generally quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s rally.

Economic data was mixed and is putting mild pressure on stocks this morning as German exports missed expectations (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.1%), reminding markets the global economy isn’t healed yet.

U.S./China trade talks ended last week without an announcement of a deal but talks will continue this week via video-conference and a deal is still widely expected.

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so focus will remain on any U.S./China headlines (again a deal could be announced any minute).  But, barring any surprises today should be generally quiet as the big events of the week (FOMC Minutes, Chinese data, bank earnings) happen Wed-Friday.

Updated Equity Market Outlook

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Equity Outlook:  A Resilient Market vs. Two Building Headwinds
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Data)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are sharply higher following better than expected global PMIs as hope for a global economic rebound stays alive.

China’s “official” Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 vs. (E) 49.8 in March, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2 vs. (E) 48.9, and the UK’s Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.1 vs. (E) 51.2.

The only disappointment in Europe, where the EU Manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.5 vs. (E) 47.6, and inflation also underwhelmed.

Today focus will remain on economic data and the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 54.2).  If that number can beat expectations, it will further reinforce the idea of a growth rebound and bonds yields should rise, the dollar should fall, and this morning’s rally should be extended, although I think it’s hard to imagine the S&P 500 moving more than a percent or two ahead from here of earnings season (more on that in the issue).  Other reports today include Retail Sales (E: 0.3%) and Construction Spending (E: -0.2%).

Finally, a “head’s up” that today is April Fool’s Day, just in case anyone (in my case most likely my children) tells you something preposterous!

Seven Ifs Updated

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Seven “Ifs” That Will Move This Market Updated (Not Much Progress)
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About China)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Important Numbers This Week, Starting Today)

Futures are slightly higher following a generally busy weekend of economic, geo-political and Fed related news.

Economic data was mixed as CN New Yuan Loans slightly missed estimates (885 bln vs. (E) 950bln), as did German IP (-0.8% vs. (E) 0.5%) while German exports beat estimates.

On trade, the Trump/Xi summit appears to have been delayed till April, although a trade deal is still expected so this delay isn’t a negative for markets, yet.

Fed Chair Powell was on 60 Minutes Sunday night but didn’t say anything new so it’s having no impact on markets.

Today markets will be focused on the Retail Sales (E: 0.0%) report, in part because Powell specifically cited it as something he’d be watching in the 60 Minutes interview.  The key to this number, as always, is the “Control” group which is retail sales less gas, autos and building materials, and the market estimate is 0.7%.  A beat of that estimate will provide a boost of confidence for the economy, while a miss will exacerbate fears of a potential slowdown.

Weekly Market Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Stocks Fell Late Last Week (It Wasn’t China)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Important Reports This Week)

Futures and global markets are moderately higher following positive reports on U.S./China trade and the potential for economic stimulus in the EU.

Reuters and Axios both had positive U.S./China trade articles this morning, with Axios reporting Trump & Chinese President Xi may meet in mid-March in Florida.  That’s particularly notable because it’s assumed the two leader’s won’t meet until a trade deal is effectively done.  So, if the report proves to be true, there’s an end in sight which is an incremental positive.

There were also numerous reports that the ECB is considering re-introducing TLTROs (a type of cheap loan to spur economic activity) to combat slowing EU growth.

Today there are no economic reports or Fed speakers so I’d expect a generally quiet trading day unless we get surprise political (possible government shutdown Friday) or geo-political (more U.S./China trade) headlines.