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Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Update
  • Oil Rig Counts Continue to Plunge

Futures are solidly higher this morning, tracking overnight gains in most international equity markets amid optimism that global efforts to contain COVID-19 are working.

Coronavirus “hot spots” such as Italy and New York City are reporting early statistics that show “lock down” measures are working to contain the outbreak as the number of new cases is slowing while death rates are stabilizing.

German Industrial Production was the only notable economic report overnight and it was better than feared in February (0.3% vs. E: -0.8%), helping support the risk-on money flows today.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports due to be released today: JOLTS (E: 6.638M) in the morning and Consumer Credit (E: $14.2B) in the afternoon, however investor focus will remain almost exclusively on coronavirus headlines as hope that the outbreak is being contained is the primary reason for this week’s stock rally.

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Update

Futures are trading higher this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as investors weighed stimulus hopes against the continued spread of the coronavirus.

As cases of COVID-19 topped 90,000, the RBA was the first central bank to cut its official “cash rate” to a record low of 50 basis points overnight largely due to the outbreak.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Flash for February and Unemployment Rate for January both met expectations overnight at 1.2% and 7.4%, respectively.

Today, there are a few potential catalysts to watch including one economic data point: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.8M) and one Fed speaker after the close: Evans (6:30 p.m. ET), while politically, “Super Tuesday” will be in focus.

The coronavirus outbreak remains the single most important factor for global markets right now, however, and if there is a significant rise in reported cases of deaths related to the virus, this week’s risk-on money flows could begin to fade and potentially give way to more volatility.

Conversely, any news regarding emergency stimulus measures, especially by G7 nations could help this week’s rally extend higher.

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Update

U.S. stock futures and global equities are solidly higher this morning thanks to emerging reports of breakthrough treatments for the coronavirus outbreak however details on the potential “cure” are limited at this time.

Economic data was mixed overnight as global Composite PMI data modestly topped expectations but Eurozone Retail Sales disappointed in December (-1.6% vs. E: -0.4%).

Today, there are three economic reports to watch starting with the first release of “jobs week,” the ADP Employment Report (E: 154K) which will be followed by International Trade figures (E: -$48.1B) and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 55.2).

There is also one Fed official scheduled to speak after the close: Brainard (4:10 p.m. ET) and a few key earnings releases to watch: MRK ($1.14), GM ($0.01), QCOM ($0.85), and MET ($1.40).

As long as there are no major surprises from those potential catalysts, the market is likely to remain focused on the coronavirus outbreak and any emerging details regarding the potential breakthroughs in treatment that were reported overnight. Given the lack of specifics and the near-term overbought status of stocks here, the risk of a “sell the news” reaction does exist today.

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • U.S.-Iran Update
  • Market Multiple Update: Initial 2020 Edition

Global stocks plunged overnight on reports of an Iranian missile strike against U.S. military bases in Iraq. Risk assets have since recovered however as there were no U.S. casualties reported and Iran said the attacks “concluded” Tehran’s retaliation for the assassination of General Soleimani.

In Europe, German Manufacturers’ Orders were –1.3% vs. (E) 0.2% but the easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are supporting modest gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, geopolitics will likely dominate trading but as long as tensions continue to ease between the U.S. and Iran, stocks will likely be able to trade with an upside bias.

As far as other catalysts go, there is one economic report to watch: ADP Employment Report (E: 157K), one Fed official scheduled to speak: Brainard (10:00 a.m. ET) and a 10-Yr T-Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Updated Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Multiple Table
  • Contrarian Play: Bullish Breakouts in the Energy Patch

U.S. stock futures are suffering mild losses this morning as investors digest yesterday’s more pronounced sector-rotation money flows amid mixed economic data with focus turning to central bank events over the next week.

Chinese CPI and PPI were slightly firmer than expected in August, while French and Italian Industrial Production figures were underwhelming.

In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was a mild disappointment at 103.1 vs. (E) 103.5 mostly due to declining growth expectations.

The mixed economic data, however, was not enough to materially affect investor sentiment and therefore is only having a modest impact on price action this morning.

Today, there is just one economic report to watch: July JOLTS (E: 7.311M) and there are no Fed officials speaking as they are in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

That will leave investors focused on the recently emerging “rotation trade,” and due to the heavyweight that tech stocks carry in the major indexes, if big tech names remain under pressure today, that will likely be a drag on the broader market.