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Labor Market Analysis By Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

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Labor Market Analysis – Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Weaker-Than-Expected August Job Growth Reported—Labor Market Officially At Pre-Pandemic Levels

In a Wednesday note to clients, which included the labor market analysis, Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye cautioned against bullish investors celebrating a labor market slowdown as an outright win for stocks, writing the economy is now entering the “difficult” stage of navigating a higher-interest rate environment.

“If the labor market is seeing easing, then now is the time the Fed will have to perfectly execute the ‘soft landing,’ because getting the economy to slow is the ‘easy’ part of monetary policy.” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

Click here to read more of Tom’s labor market analysis.

Forbes Labor Market

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on September 1st, 2022

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What does Friday’s jobs report mean for the market? ‘Too hot’ and stocks could tumble, says market pro.

The labor market needs to show signs that it’s on the path to returning to a state of relative balance, where job openings are roughly the same as the number of people looking for jobs — and if it does not show that, then concerns about a more hawkish-for-longer Fed will rise, and that’s not good for stocks, wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and the founder of the Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

 

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: Labor Market Issues Remain a Headwind

Futures are slightly lower while global shares extended recent gains overnight ahead of key inflation data and more progress on U.S. infrastructure and spending plans.

After passing the bipartisan $1.2T infrastructure bill yesterday, the Senate narrowly passed a $3.5T spending plan aimed at fighting climate change and poverty overnight however neither of the bills is likely to be taken up in the House until after the summer recess in September.

Economically, German CPI met estimates of 0.9% in July which did not have a material impact on markets.

Today, the focus will be on economic data early with the July CPI report due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.5% m/m, 5.5%y/y).

Then after the open, there are a couple of Fed speakers to watch: Bostic (10:30 a.m. ET) and George (12:00 p.m. ET). The narrative has been shifting slightly more hawkish recently so look for a continuation of that trend in the speeches which may cause a further rise in Treasury yields today.

Finally, in the early afternoon, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If the outcome is weak (tails) expect a continued move higher in longer maturity yields that will have some degree of hawkish impact across asset classes while a strong auction would likely see yields pull back from their recent gains which would likely offer a boost to growth/tech stocks.