Fed Wildcard to Watch
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Dynamics Between Stocks, Bonds, and the Economy Have Changed Since Covid
- Fed Wildcard to Watch Today
- KBE Chart – Visualizing the Recent Carnage
- Existing Home Sales Rebound Amid a Pullback in Mortgage Rates: Chart
Stock futures briefly spiked lower overnight in the wake of a hot CPI print in the U.K. but bond markets are steady and futures have largely stabilized as focus turns to the Fed.
Economically, U.K. CPI jumped from 10.1% in January to 10.4% in February, well ahead of estimates of 9.9%, however, both input and output PPI readings unexpectedly declined, easing some of the inflation worries this morning.
There are no notable economic reports today which will leave markets focused on the price action in the banking sector in the morning (meaningful weakness could drag the broader market lower) before attention shifts to the FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) this afternoon.
A 25 basis point hike and no change to the dot plot is the consensus expectation but there are a lot of moving pieces to today’s meeting so watching the reaction from the Treasury market this afternoon will be critical in interpreting what today’s decision means for markets.