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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher ahead of the jobs report following a quiet night of news.
The only notable economic report overnight was Eurozone PPI, which rose 9.6% yoy vs. (E) 9.5% yoy. That report isn’t moving markets, but it’s the second inflation report in two days to imply inflation pressures haven’t peaked.
There were no new developments on infrastructure.
Today the jobs number is key and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 675K, UE Rate 5.7%, Wages yoy 3.1%. As long as the headline job adds number isn’t close to 1 million and the wages number doesn’t spike well above expectations, markets should be able to generally digest this report, even if it is a mild surprise.
Other economic indicators today include International Trade in Goods (E: -$71.2B) and Factory Orders (E: 1.3%) but we don’t expect them to move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed economic data.
Global June manufacturing PMIs were mixed as the Japanese (52.4 vs. 53.0) and UK (63.9 vs. (E) 64.2) PMIs missed estimates, while the EU manufacturing PMI beat expectations (63.4 vs. (E) 63.1.).
The net impact of the data is to show the global recovery is on going, but also that it has lost a bit of momentum.
Today’s focus will be on economic data, with the two important reports being Jobless Claims (E: 387K) and the June ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 61.1). As has been the case, markets will want “Goldilocks” data to start the quarter, in that the numbers show solid activity, but nothing that would make the Fed taper more aggressively. There’s also one Fed speaker, Bostic at 2:00 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a weekend of mixed macro-economic news.
On infrastructure, President Biden reaffirmed his support for the bipartisan bill, reversing Friday’s stance that he’d only sign it as part of a larger infrastructure program. But, at this point, the entire process remains fluid, and markets don’t expect any final bills anytime soon (although we should prep for more “corporate tax hike” headlines, although that remains ultimately unlikely).
COVID trends deteriorated slightly over the weekend with Australia and South Africa re-implementing lockdowns following an increase in cases of the “delta” variant but so far this isn’t an issue in the U.S. (so it’s not directly impacting markets).
Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers including Williams (9:00 a.m.ET), Harker (11:00 a.m. ET) and Quarles (1:10 p.m. ET), and if their comments are more hawkish than expected it will be a slight headwind on stocks. On infrastructure, expect more headlines but again the market doesn’t expect anything passing anytime soon, so they won’t be material influences on the markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed ahead of this morning’s jobs report and following a mostly quiet night of news.
Economic data was mixed overnight as the UK Construction PMI beat estimates while Euro Zone Retail Sales missed, but neither number is moving markets.
Infrastructure “chatter” about a potential $1 trillion compromise is getting louder, but markets remain skeptical about an infrastructure deal anytime soon.
Focus today will be on the Jobs Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 645K, UE Rate 5.9%, Wages 0.2% m/m). Thursday’s strong employment data (ADP and claims) makes the market more sensitive to a “Too Hot” report (and potentially less dovish Fed) than it was on Wednesday, but the bottom line is that a number near either extreme (900k or 300k) will likely cause at least a temporary market headwind.
Also, Fed Chair Powell is speaking at a Bank of International Settlements Climate panel right now, but that shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher thanks to more solid economic data combined with generally in-line inflation metrics.
The Chinese, EU, and UK final May manufacturing PMIs all largely met expectations and confirmed the global economic recovery is continuing (and importantly not deteriorating).
EU HICP (their CPI) rose 2.0% vs. (E) 1.9%, but the core reading was in line with expectations at 0.9% and as such not spiking inflation fears.
Focus today will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 60.9) and the market will want to see a “Goldilocks” number that shows the economic rebound is continuing, but that activity isn’t so hot that it increases inflation fears. If we get that “Goldilocks” number stocks can extend the early rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are flat following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets digested Friday’s jobs report, which was a disappointment but isn’t changing the broad market outlook (more on that in the Report).
Commodity prices continued to surge over the weekend, and that’s going to continue to increase inflation pressures. Iron Ore prices rose 10% as China tightened supply amidst the global recovery. Meanwhile, wholesale gasoline prices rose 2% following a cyber-attack that closed the Colonial Pipeline, although the outage isn’t expected to be long-lasting.
Today there are no notable economic reports and only one Fed speaker, Evans (8:30 a.m. ET, 2:00 p.m. ET). So, unless we learn the Colonial Pipeline outage will be long-lasting (which would send gasoline prices sharply higher), I’d expect relatively quiet trading today.
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally higher ahead of the jobs report on more positive stimulus commentary overnight.
More Dems and Republicans voiced support for the $900-billion-ish stimulus bill overnight, and some, or all, of the bill could be passed by next Friday (the budget deadline).
Economic data was again solid overnight as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates (2.9% vs. (E) 1.5%).
Today focus will be on any more stimulus headlines and the Employment Situation report.
Expectations for the jobs report are: Job Adds: 500K and U.E. Rate: 6.8%. Anything above 250kish jobs adds should be “fine” for the market, especially given the stimulus momentum and it’d likely take a negative number to hit stocks.
Finally, there are several Fed speakers today including: Williams (8:05 a.m. ET), Evans (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), but none of them should materially move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are more than 1% higher following a generally quiet weekend as markets bounce ahead of a week full of potential catalysts.
Politically, Biden maintains a wide lead nationally but polls have tightened in some key swing states (FL/AZ/IA). But, markets do still expect the “Blue Wave” final result.
Economic data was solid was Chinese, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs all beat estimates (and remained above 50).
Today we do get one important economic report, the October ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 55.7), but that shouldn’t move markets unless is a big negative surprise. Instead, we’ll start to get headlines and whispers about how the election is shaping up (early voting totals, etc.) and those headlines are likely to move markets today and tomorrow. So, don’t be surprised if markets get volatile today and tomorrow, but keep in mind almost all of it will be trading “noise.”
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher thanks to momentum as markets extend Friday’s rally following a quiet weekend.
Economic data was mixed overnight as Chinese exports were better than expected (-3.3% vs. (E) -6.5%) while German Industrial Production missed estimates (-17.9% vs. (E ) -16.2%). But, neither number was bad enough to turn the bullish momentum.
Protests continued across the U.S. and were mostly peaceful, but this remains largely a non-issue for markets.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers so re-opening headlines and virus trends will drive trading, and as long as there isn’t any materially negative news on either front, the bulls will likely remain in charge.
