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Discussing the Latest Canada and US Jobs Data

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US Jobs Data: Tom Essaye Interviewed on BNN Bloomberg

Ultimately the path of inflation will hold the answer on rate hikes, over jobs data: Chief economist

Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist at Desjardins, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, and Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss the latest Canada and US jobs data, and whether the central banks might hike again.

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg video interview published on October 9th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Discuss the Latest Canada and US Jobs Data

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Fed Takeaways

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the More-Dovish-Than-Expected Fed Decision a Bullish Gamechanger? No. Here’s Why
  • Fed Decision Takeaways
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S. equity futures are rebounding modestly this morning but the price action is tentative as yesterday’s volatile reaction to the Fed decision and Yellen’s push back on “blanket” deposit guarantees are digested.

Looking overseas, the Swiss National Bank moved forward with a 50 bp rate hike overnight which showed policy makers’ increased confidence in the global banking system and continued commitment to reign in inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are a few economic reports to watch including: Jobless Claims (E: 195K) and New Home Sales (E: 645K).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 10-Yr TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer some insight to the market’s view of long term inflation trends.

Bottom line, the late day selloff in equities yesterday was once again led by bank stocks after Treasury Secretary Yellen pushed back on the idea of expanded deposit insurance levels and today, that means bank stocks will again be in focus. If banks are able to stabilize, stocks broadly should be able to as well, but if we see more selling pressure, expect more volatility over the course of the day.

Three Keys to a Bottom Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom: Update
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Growth and Inflation Both Peaking?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Jobs Data in Focus

Stock futures are moderately lower this morning, tracking losses in EU shares amid renewed inflation concerns.

German CPI jumped to 7.9% vs. (E) 7.5% and the Eurozone HICP Flash rose to 8.1% vs. (E) 7.7% in May. Additionally, the EU agreed to a partial ban on Russian energy imports which has sent oil to multi-month highs, compounding inflation fears this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there are three economic reports due to be released: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.2%), FHFA HPI (E: 1.9%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 104.0). Investors will want to see the latter report at least meet estimates as the health of the U.S. consumer has become less certain in the face of lofty inflation pressures.

Finally, there are no Fed officials speaking today but Powell is set to meet with Biden at the White House at 1:15 p.m. ET. And following Waller’s more hawkish comments about suggesting 50 bp hikes until inflation is back at 2% from yesterday, any insight to the Fed’s policy plans after the summer rate hikes, which are solidly priced in, will move markets (more aggressive policy expectations could hit stocks today).