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A Positive Scenario for 2023

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – There’s a Positive Scenario for 2023, Too
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Focus on Jobless Claims

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets higher while the dollar is lower in risk-on trading this morning following more positive reopening news out of China.

China will end its eight day quarantine for inbound travelers on January 8th and scrapped international flight limits in the latest move away from Covid-Zero which is bolstering the outlook for global growth in the months ahead and markets are responding favorably to the news.

Today, there are three economic reports due to be released: International Trade in Goods (E: -$97.0B), Case Shiller Home Price Index (E: -1.2%), and FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.5%) but none of them should meaningfully impact the outlook for Fed policy and therefore are likely to have a limited impact on stocks.

There are no Fed speakers today but the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If demand is weak and yields rise following the auction, that could weigh on equities as it would be a mildly hawkish signal from the fixed-income market as we approach the end of the year.

 

Sevens Report Q4’22 Quarterly Letter Coming January 3.

The Q4 2022 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Tuesday, January 3.

Especially given all the volatility in 2022 and continued challenges for markets, we think the start of the year is a critically important time to communicate with clients and prospects.

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little-to-no work from you).

You can view our Q3‘22 Quarterly Letter here.

If you’d like to learn more or are interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 19th, 2022

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Stocks Fall to Start the Week as Recession Worries Linger

“A lot of people are throwing in the towel on the year, for lack of a better word, and you’re seeing people sort of remove some of those hopeful year-end bullish bets,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Research, told Barron’s on Monday. Click here to read the full article.

CPI Takeaways and Updated FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does the CPI Report Mean for Markets?
  • FOMC Preview: Post CPI Report (Encore Edition)
  • Fibonacci Retracement Levels Remain Pivotal for the S&P 500 – Chart

S&P 500 futures are little changed, notably hovering within a few points of their pre-CPI levels from yesterday as traders await the December Fed decision.

Economically, U.K. CPI favorably dropped sharply from 2.0% in October to 0.4% in November, below estimates of 0.6% in the latest sign of easing global inflation pressures.

China is moving forward with economic/Covid policy meetings this week after previously saying they would be postponed pointing to a potential reopening occurring sooner than later.

Today, there is just one economic report due early in the day: Import & Export Prices (E: -0.5%, -0.6%) but unless there is a huge surprise the numbers are not likely to have an impact on equities with the Fed looming.

Turning to the Fed, the FOMC Announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET with markets pricing in a high likelihood of a 50 bp hike while the market will be focused on the “dot plot.” A terminal rate of 5% or above will be viewed as hawkish and likely weigh on stocks.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference is at 2:30 p.m. ET and his tone could very well decide the final direction of stocks into the close today (a stubbornly hawkish stance remains a threat to equities and other risk assets right now).

A Make of Break Week for Stocks and Bonds

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Make or Break Week for Stocks and Bonds
  • CPI Preview:  Good, Bad & Ugly
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Year-End Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Fed Decision Wednesday and CPI Tomorrow are the key events.

Futures are slightly higher as China continues to remove COVID restrictions.  The rest of the weekend was quiet from a macroeconomic perspective.

China announced it will deactivate its COVID tracking app in the latest signal that it is gradually abandoning the “Zero COVID” policy.

Economically, reports were sparse but UK Industrial Production (0.7% vs. (E) 0.0%) and Monthly GDP (0.5% vs. (E) 0.4%) both beat expectations.

Today the economic calendar is quiet and trading should be also, as markets look ahead to the week’s key events tomorrow (CPI) and Wednesday (FOMC Decision).

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, and Quarterly Letter

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2022 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free), or add a new product (Alpha or Quarterly Letter).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you want to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email info@sevensreport.com.

Is the VIX Broken?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the VIX Broken?

Futures are modestly higher following in-line inflation readings from China and more gridlock in Washington as markets look ahead to today’s inflation readings.

Chinese CPI met expectations rising 1.6% and that benign reading will keep stimulus coming in that economy.

Politically, Arizona Senator Sinema left the Democrat party and registered as an independent, although the move is unlikely to change her voting patterns.

Today focus will be on inflation data, specifically PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 7.2% y/y) and the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%).  If those reports come in under expectations and further hint at dis-inflation, it will extend the early rally.

If Inflation Drops and Growth Slows, What Benefits?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • If Inflation Drops and Growth Slows, What Benefits? (Answer Inside)
  • Why the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Was Important yesterday
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are marginally higher on additional China reopening headlines, although China embarking on a re-opening process is now well known and mostly priced into stocks.

The South China Morning Post reported that Hong Kong will ease isolation rules for COVID-positive residents and travelers, in what is the latest step towards reopening.

Economic data was sparse overnight and the only notable report was Japanese GDP which slightly beat estimates (-0.2% vs. (E) -0.3%).

Today’s focus will be on weekly Jobless Claims (E: 228K) as markets need to see further deterioration in the labor market to move the Fed closer to an ultimate “pivot.”  Any move towards 250k in should be welcomed by markets.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global on December 7th, 2022

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Stock market’s ‘fear gauge’ plunges as investors shift hedging strategies

Still, the VIX has not behaved in its typical fashion for much of this year, said Tyler Richey, a co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels – S&P 500 Chart
  • VIX Breaks Longstanding Downtrend in Cautious Signal

Futures are modestly lower as persistent concerns about hawkish Fed policy and fading global growth overshadow positive Covid policy news out of China and encouraging EU economic data.

Economically, German Industrial Production was better than feared at -0.1% vs. (E) -0.6% while  Q3 Eurozone GDP topped estimates at 2.3% vs. (E) 2.1% Y/Y suggesting the EU economy may be stabilizing.

China’s NHC issued new guidelines on Covid restrictions overnight that eased certain testing and quarantine requirements and will hold a press conference tomorrow which points to the potential for more progress in moving away from Covid-Zero.

Looking into today session, there is one economic report before the bell: Productivity & Costs (E: 0.4%, 3.3%) and then Consumer Credit (E: 27.3B) will be released in the afternoon. The latter report is not one we typically follow closely but there has been increasing concern about the health of household balance sheets, so a sharp move higher in outstanding credit could raise concerns about defaults in the coming quarters.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today but stocks have been taking queues from rate markets and the dollar so if either meaningfully move higher, that will add pressure to the broader equity market today.

Less Bad Isn’t Good (Especially at the Valuations)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line:  Less Bad Isn’t Good (Especially at these Valuations)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can the S&P 500 Hold Recent Gains?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Signs of Dis-Inflation This Week?

Futures are moderately lower despite in-line economic data and more re-opening optimism from China, as markets further digest Friday’s jobs report.

Reuters reported that COVID may be downgraded to “Category B” in China which may result in new, less restrictive guidance from the government as early as this week.

Economic data largely met expectations as the Euro Zone Composite PMI, UK Composite PMI, and Euro Zone Retail Sales reports were all basically in line.

Today the calendar is mostly quiet but the focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 53.5) and if the headline can remain firm (above 50) and prices can drop further, that’ll help support stocks.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Signs of Slowing Growth and Inflation Are Growing
  • Technical Update

Futures little changed following a quiet night of news as investors further digest Wednesday’s big rally in stocks and Thursday’s big rally in bonds all while awaiting today’s jobs report.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Euro Zone PPI which fell more than expected (-2.9% vs. (E) -2.0%), adding to this week’s list of indicators showing global dis-inflation.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  Job Adds 200K, UR Rate 3.7%, Wages 0.3% m/m 4.6% y/y.  Due to the big rally in stocks and bonds on Wed/Thurs, a lot of the “benefit” from a “Just Right” number is likely priced in at these levels, so the risk going into the report today is for disappointment, especially if we get a job adds number in the mid to high 200k.

Away from the jobs report, we also get two Fed speakers: Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET) and Evans (10:15 a.m., 1:00 p.m. ET).