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Inflation Expectations Dashboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Inflation Expectations Dashboard
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S equity futures are rebounding with European shares this morning while bond yields are rising from multi-month lows as investors digest a volatile week amid economic uncertainty and renewed COVID-19 concerns.

Economically, Chinese inflation data was “cooler” than expected with June CPI falling from 1.3% to 1.1% vs. (E) 1.4%, helping solidify the idea that inflation has peaked.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the calendar is quiet as there are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

That will likely leave investors to focus on any developments regarding the Delta variant of COVID-19 and any subsequent lockdown measures as well as price action in the bond market. As long as coronavirus headlines are not materially negative and bond yields extend this morning’s bounce, stocks should be able to claw back more of yesterday’s losses.

Inflation Expectations Dashboard

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Introducing the Sevens Report Inflation Expectations Dashboard

Futures are modestly lower on disappointing economic data and despite continued strong earnings (AMZN was the latest tech company to post blow out numbers).

China’s April Manufacturing PMI surprisingly dropped to 51.1 vs. (E) 51.7 while German flash Q1 GDP also missed estimates, falling –1.7% vs. (E) 1.5%.  Those two numbers imply the global economic recovery may have lost some positive momentum, and that’s why futures are lower this morning.

Today focus will be on inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (1.8%) and the inflation component of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 87.1).  But, because the Fed is so committed to inflation being transitory, the numbers will have to be very high (well above 2% in the Core PCE Price Index) to further pressure stocks.  We also get one Fed speaker, Kaplan (9:45 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and some notable reports today include:  XOM ($0.59), ABBV ($2.85), CLX ($1.47), CVX ($0.92), CL ($0.80%).