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Important Economic Data This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Recovery Losing Momentum?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, Global PMIs Thursday (Two Important Reports)

Futures are slightly lower following a weekend of mixed macro-economic news.

On infrastructure, President Biden reaffirmed his support for the bipartisan bill, reversing Friday’s stance that he’d only sign it as part of a larger infrastructure program.  But, at this point, the entire process remains fluid, and markets don’t expect any final bills anytime soon (although we should prep for more “corporate tax hike” headlines, although that remains ultimately unlikely).

COVID trends deteriorated slightly over the weekend with Australia and South Africa re-implementing lockdowns following an increase in cases of the “delta” variant but so far this isn’t an issue in the U.S. (so it’s not directly impacting markets).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers including Williams (9:00 a.m.ET), Harker (11:00 a.m. ET) and Quarles (1:10 p.m. ET), and if their comments are more hawkish than expected it will be a slight headwind on stocks.  On infrastructure, expect more headlines but again the market doesn’t expect anything passing anytime soon, so they won’t be material influences on the markets.

Infrastructure Outlook: Good/Bad/Ugly

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Infrastructure Outlook:  Good/Bad/Ugly
  • Oil Update & EIA Analysis (Can the Rally Keep Going?)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night and ahead of the week’s two big events, the ECB decision and U.S. May CPI report.

Economic data was sparse although Japanese PPI rose more than expected at 4.9% vs. (E) 3.8% yoy.  But, investors expect high inflation readings this month so it’s not moving markets.

Today the two key events are the ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) and U.S. CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.6% y/y).  Generally speaking, if the ECB is specific on tapering and core CPI runs close to 4.0% yoy (expectations are for 3.4% yoy in Core CPI) then we should expect volatility as the data will imply less central bank accommodation and more inflation. Conversely, if the ECB is vague on tapering and inflation largely meets expectations, then stocks can extend the rally.

The other notable event this morning is Jobless Claims (E: 369K) but given the issues with the labor market are supply driven (people not wanting to work) the market isn’t as focused on jobless claims any longer.