How Much Further Can the Correction Go?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- How Much Further Can the Correction Go?
- Oil Update and EIA Analysis
- Flash PMIs: More Signs of a Plateau in the Recovery?
Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s selloff following a quiet night of news.
Economic data was mixed as German Ifo Business Expectations slightly missed estimates (97.7 vs. (E) 98) while British Distributive Trades (retail sales) beat (10% vs. (E) -11%).
Today the key report will be weekly Jobless Claims, which are forecast to move up to 880K. If weekly claims are worse than expectations, concerns will grow that the economic recovery is indeed plateauing (and remember we’re almost certainly not getting stimulus until late November/early December, at the earliest). We also get the latest look at New Home Sales (E: 875K).
Finally, there is a veritable parade of Fed speakers today: Kaplan (8:50 a.m. ET), Bullard (12:00 p.m. ET), Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET), Evans (1:00 p.m. ET), Williams (2:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET), Powell (10:00 a.m. ET). Of those speaking, Powell is clearly the most important, but we don’t expect him to say anything new (and as such the market should ignore pretty much all of it).