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New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)
  • Chart – Home Sales Fall Amid Elevated Prices

Futures are slightly lower on weak software company guidance ahead of key inflation data and NVDA earnings today.

INTU beat earnings and revenue estimates, but forward guidance fell short of lofty expectations which is dragging software stocks and the broader tech complex lower ahead of the bell.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) due to be released before the open. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and Q2 GDP (E: 1.5%) will be released this morning, shedding light on the health of U.S. growth and demand metrics.

Later in the day, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction (11:30 a.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Fed’s Barkin will speak leading into the lunch hour (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, focus will shift to one of the seasons most important earnings releases due after the close with NVDA ($2.09) results looming large. Other names reporting today include: KSS ($0.55), WSM ($2.05), CRM ($2.35), CRWD ($0.05), OKTA ($0.44), and HPQ ($0.66), but again NVDA will be the key report to watch.

 

Bad Things Happen Fast (Part II)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bad Things Happen Fast, Part II
  • Composite PMI Flash Data Takeaways
  • New Home Sales Plunge – Chart
  • 10-Year Yield Breaking a 15 Year Downtrend – Chart

Stock futures are little changed this morning, well off the overnight highs after a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index met expectations of -26.0 while German GDP came in at 3.8% vs. (E) 3.7% but today’s data is not materially impacting markets.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch early: Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and the Treasury will hold an auction for 5-Year Notes at 1:00 p.m. ET. Markets will want to see data that shows healthy demand and steady trade in fixed income markets if stocks are to stabilize further.

As far as the Fed goes, Vice-Chair Brainard is scheduled to speak at 12:15 p.m. ET before the day’s main event, the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes will hit at 2:00 p.m. ET. If Brainard and the minutes are less hawkish that could support a continuation of the latest attempt at a relief rally. At the same time, any more-hawkish leaning rhetoric or verbiage could lead to a resurgence in volatility as news flow has been decidedly negative over the last week.

Dow Theory Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update
  • Existing Home Sales Analysis

US futures are bouncing modestly as yesterday’s spike in volatility is digested while major averages in Europe and Asia were little changed during a quiet night of trade.

Economically, Japanese Trade figures from December missed expectations adding pressure to the Nikkei o/n.

Today, there are two economic reports due to be released in the US. First the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) which is generally not very closely watched but after yesterday’s soft Existing Home Sales report, it may get some attention today.

The other report is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -3.0). Again, not usually a very widely followed report but after the string of soft regional Fed survey reports last month, another big miss could add downward pressure on an already fragile market today.

There are no Fed officials speaking today which leaves earnings as the other major focus with: PG ($1.21), UTX ($1.51), and SYF ($0.93) reporting ahead of the bell and F ($0.30) after the close.

Lastly, the market will remain sensitive to any developments on relations between the U.S. and China as trade headlines and growth concerns were largely viewed as the reason behind yesterday’s heavy price action.

Key Earnings Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Update and Outlook

U.S. futures are tracking global shares lower on renewed economic growth concerns after Chinese GDP hit a near three-decade low of +6.6% in 2018 while the IMF reduced 2019 global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% from 3.7%.

Furthermore, news that the U.S. is pursuing formal extradition of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou from Canada is further weighing on sentiment towards the delicate political relationship between the U.S.-China right now.

There was more underwhelming economic data o/n as the German ZEW headline whiffed (27.6 vs. E: 43.2), underscoring deterioration in analyst confidence in the EU’s largest economy.

Today there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.240M) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

That will leave investor focus on earnings and U.S.-China relations. Notable earnings today include: JNJ ($1.95) before the open and IBM ($4.81), COF ($2.40) after the bell.