A sharp rise in Treasury yields which begins to drive real interest rates higher is a “major risk to the gold market…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night as markets await the latest readings on inflation via today’s CPI and inflation expectations index in Consumer sentiment.
Economic data slightly underwhelmed as UK Industrial Production (1.3% vs. (E) 1.4%) and UK GDP (0.9% vs. (E) 1.0%) both missed expectations.
There were no notable Omicron updates overnight.
Today the focus will be on inflations via the Consumer Price Index (E: 0.7% m/m, 6.8% y/y) and the inflation expectations index in the Consumer Sentiment report (E: 67.0). Markets are already expecting the Fed to materially accelerate the pace of tapering of QE next week, but if these inflation readings come in much hotter than expected, that likely will be a headwind on stocks as it will only encourage the Fed to get even more aggressive in tapering QE.
Real interest rates are as low as they have been since the beginning of the pandemic, which is supportive of gold…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
The precious metal’s relatively quiet price action may wind up being the calm before the storm of a…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are indicating an open at fresh record highs and international markets traded higher overnight as earnings continue to top expectations and economic concerns fade.
There were no notable economic reports or market-moving headlines overnight outside of more mostly upbeat earnings.
Looking into today’s session, there are several reports on the housing market due out early: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.3%), and New Home Sales (E: 760K), but the most important economic release to watch today is Consumer Confidence (E: 109.0) as a disappointing print could weigh on consumer spending expectations into year-end.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The risk to equities is a soft outcome as that could rekindle the hawkish policy concerns that weighed on risk assets this past Friday.
Finally, earnings remain the main focus of the market right now and several big companies are due to report today including: UPS ($2.52), GE ($0.41), and SHW ($2.07) before the open, and AMD ($0.67), MSFT ($2.06), GOOGL ($23.13), V ($1.53) after the close.
The fundamentals are cautiously bullish for gold as a dovish taper outlook could…said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed this morning as investors weigh dovish central bank developments against in-line inflation data in Europe as focus turns to U.S. data and the Fed.
The RBA minutes revealed policy makers are open to extending QE beyond the current September deadline while CPI reports in Europe all met estimates.
This morning is lining up to be a busy one from a potential catalyst standpoint with a slew of economic data due to be released including: PPI (E: 0.6%), Retail Sales (E: -0.4%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 22.0), Industrial Production (E: 0.6%), and Housing Market Index (E: 83).
The June FOMC Meeting also begins today which will likely initiate a sense of market paralysis ahead of tomorrow’s announcement and Powell’s press conference however a 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET could move Treasuries and ultimately impact stocks in the early afternoon.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are wavering between gains and losses this morning as traders digest mixed economic data and look ahead to a key inflation report due later in the week.
Economically, Japanese GDP was not as bad as feared in Q1 but German Industrial Production missed estimates as did the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index which is weighing modestly on sentiment this morning.
There are two economic reports to watch in the U.S. today: International Trade in Goods and Services (E: -$69.0B) and JOLTS (E: 8.045M). The latter will be the more important to watch as investors continue to look for clues regarding the state of the labor market recovery.
No Fed officials are scheduled to speak today however there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and a weak outcome could rekindle taper fears with Thursday’s CPI report coming into focus.
On the other hand, “the threat of stagflation continues to emerge as an underlying market theme, and that is supportive of gold for one main reason…” analysts at Sevens Report Research, wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The latest string of strong economic data, including the good March U.S. jobs report last Friday and ‘hot’ ISM purchasing managers surveys, have “suggested the economic recovery is accelerating,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Subsequently, 5-year…Click here to read the full article.
