“The pace of the drop in copper prices is a growing concern as futures are down more than 10% from the January highs and beginning to suggest that there…” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The “dismal durable goods number is helping boost gold prices as recession fears are again on the rise,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research…Click here to read the full article.
“Gold has fallen into a broad, near-term trading range between support at $1,500 and resistance above at $1,560. There are multiple influences on gold right now that could trigger…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“Although gold futures remain near-term overbought, momentum is decidedly higher. Fundamentally, the sharp downtrends in bond yields…” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, in a note.
“Although gold futures remain near-term overbought, momentum is decidedly higher. Fundamentally, the sharp downtrends in bond yields firmly support the bullish case for gold.” said Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are tentatively higher ahead of the Fed this morning as AAPL earnings beat (shares up 4%+), economic data was mixed, and there were no real trade war updates o/n.
Economically, China’s CFLP Manufacturing PMI was slightly better than feared at 49.7 but importantly still below 50 pointing to contraction while EU data remained “Goldilocks” with in-line growth metrics but soft inflation readings.
Today, investors will clearly be keenly focused on the Fed but there are some other catalysts to watch. On the earnings front, GE ($0.12) reports before the bell while QCOM ($0.75) results will be released after the close.
Economically, the first look at July jobs data will hit this morning with the ADP Employment Report (E: 155K) and then Q2 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%) will be released shortly after.
Turning to the Fed, the FOMC Announcement will print at 2:00 p.m. ET, (E: -25 bp cut to 2.00-2.25%) and Powell’s Press Conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET. The market has high expectations for the Fed today and even a mildly hawkish disappointment could trigger significant volatility as valuations remain as stretched as they have been in years.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down slightly as the recent run to new highs in the S&P 500 is digested after a quiet start to the week.
Trade optimism faded modestly overnight amid several less encouraging news articles while there were no notable economic data releases overseas.
Today is lining up to be a busy day as there are a lot of potential market catalysts to watch ahead of the G20 this weekend.
On the economic data front, there are several housing numbers due out: Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%) and New Home Sales (E: 680K) as well as Consumer Confidence (E: 132.0).
There are also multiple Fed speakers: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Powell (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bullard (6:30 p.m. ET). Powell will clearly be the most important to watch, however it remains very unlikely that his tone changes much (or at all) from last week’s FOMC press conference.
There is also a 2 Year T-Note Auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and if demand is soft (so yields rise) that could pressure stocks as it would show the market is dialing back expectations for a very dovish Fed in the back half of 2019.
Lastly there are a few companies reporting earnings today, but the FDX report after the close will be the key to watch as the release could offer insight (positive or negative) into the latest influence that U.S.-China trade tensions have had on global trade.
Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, says last weekend’s G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting produced no progress on U.S.-China trade, and there are no…Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye quoted in ETF Trends. “There can be no clearer message than that to the Fed: Rates are too high. This is the bond market’s equivalent of a bullhorn screaming it in Powell’s face.” Click here to read the full article.
“A firming dollar and sharply rising bond yields” were also reasons why gold saw such a big drop Thursday. Gold rallied too far too fast on the dovish shift in the…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report. To read the full article click here.