The Country Garden news reinforced the notion that “recession risks in China are real,” explained Sevens Reports’ Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Sevens Report: “We and others said at the start of the year that economic data would drive this market in 2023, and that’s what’s happened. The data has been Goldilocks, inflation has fallen, and the Fed isn’t worse than feared. But just like those were positive surprises YTD, they can also turn into negative surprises, as anyone who was in this business in ’99-’00 and ’07-’08 can tell you.”
Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets lower this morning after more disappointing PMI data overnight.
Economically, China’s June Composite PMI dropped to 52.5 from 55.6 in May with the Services Index notably missing estimates at 53.9 vs. (E) 55.9. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Composite PMI fell into contraction at 49.9 vs. (E) 50.3.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.3 million) and Factory Orders (E: 0.9%), although barring any huge surprises, neither should materially move markets ahead of the Service PMI data and June jobs report due later in the week.
From there, focus will turn to the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET as markets look for further clarity on the Fed’s commitment to raising rates further in H2’23 (a hawkish interpretation would weight on risk assets).
Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams but not until the closing bell at 4:00 p.m. ET so any impact by his comments will likely not be realized until tomorrow.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Equity futures are modestly higher this morning as traders weigh renewed optimism about Chinese growth against more hawkish policy speak from multiple ECB officials, including President Lagarde, reiterating the need for a “higher for longer” policy rate path.
Premier Li of China confirmed the government is committed to achieving their 5% GDP target overnight which helped Asian markets outperform and fueled modest risk-on money flows around the globe.
Today’s list of economic data releases is a long one with Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.0%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.5%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%), Consumer Confidence (E: 103.7), and New Home Sales (E: 663K).
Beyond those economic reports, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and influence equity market trading.
Bottom line, in order for markets to stabilize here and stocks to resume their 2023 rally, we will need to see signs of slowing, but not collapsing growth in today’s economic data and no surprises in the Treasury auction. Looking ahead, trading may slow down some today as investors position into tomorrow’s Central Bank Forum hosted by the ECB in which Fed Chair Powell will participate.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed despite more economic stimulus from China.
The Chinese government cut bank deposit rates and encouraged lending to boost auto sales in the latest effort to stimulate the economy, although the moves were already expected so this isn’t a new, positive surprise.
Economic data was sparse overnight with Japanese and EU GDPs the only notable releases, and neither number moved markets.
Today the only notable economic report is Jobless Claims (E: 235K) and markets will want to see stability in the data (so no sudden jump higher), but more broadly markets remain in a temporary “holding pattern” with the CPI report and Fed decision now both looming less than a week away.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are rebounding modestly this morning but the price action is tentative as yesterday’s volatile reaction to the Fed decision and Yellen’s push back on “blanket” deposit guarantees are digested.
Looking overseas, the Swiss National Bank moved forward with a 50 bp rate hike overnight which showed policy makers’ increased confidence in the global banking system and continued commitment to reign in inflation pressures.
Looking into today’s session, there are a few economic reports to watch including: Jobless Claims (E: 195K) and New Home Sales (E: 645K).
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 10-Yr TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer some insight to the market’s view of long term inflation trends.
Bottom line, the late day selloff in equities yesterday was once again led by bank stocks after Treasury Secretary Yellen pushed back on the idea of expanded deposit insurance levels and today, that means bank stocks will again be in focus. If banks are able to stabilize, stocks broadly should be able to as well, but if we see more selling pressure, expect more volatility over the course of the day.