The Sevens Report Research analysts said oil’s new trading range spans “between support in the upper $70s and resistance in the low $90s, as traders assess the outlook for demand amid growing recession concerns but still-tight global supply dynamics.” Click here to read the full article.
“The Biden administration introduced an ‘SPR put’ to the oil market this week when they announced purchasing crude to replenish reserves when prices dip towards $70 a barrel,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a night of mixed earnings results and yet another firm inflation report.
TSLA missed on revenue and production targets and the stock fell –5% after hours, although overall earnings reports were more mixed than negative overnight.
German PPI was the latest global inflation indicator to run hotter than estimates (2.3% vs. (E) 1.5%) reinforcing that global inflation is proving “sticky.”
Today’s focus will be on economic data and the key reports are (in order of importance): Philly Fed (-5.0), Jobless Claims (E: 235K), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.695M). If we can see a moderation in the data (especially in the price indices in Philly Fed) then stocks can rally. We also get numerous Fed speakers including: Harker (12:00 p.m. ET), Jefferson (1:30 p.m. ET), Cook (1:45 p.m. ET), and Bowman (2:05 p.m. ET) but none of them should move markets.
Finally, earnings season rolls on although the critically important results really increase next week. Some reports we’re watching today include: AAL ($0.54), SNAP ($0.00), and WHR ($5.59).
“The backdrop of sticky high inflation resulting in increasingly more hawkish Fed policy expectations for the foreseeable future and the subsequent rise in recession fears will likely keep a lid on WTI in the low to mid $90s,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“Oil has given back roughly half of the October gains this week thanks to the negative shift in policy and economic outlooks denting demand expectations,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
“With many analysts and economists now forecasting a recession as their base case outlook for 2023, demand estimates for everything from energy products to industrial metals are taking a hit,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the implications of Friday’s strong jobs report following a mostly quiet weekend.
Friday’s jobs report won’t make the Fed any more hawkish, but it’ll keep stocks facing a dual headwind of aggressive Fed and earnings pressure, and that’s weighing on futures.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today is Columbus Day so there are no economic reports while the banks and bond market will be closed, likely leading to slow trading in stocks. There is one Fed speaker, Evans (9:00 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets (at this point it’s well-known what the Fed plans to do).
“If U.S. Treasury yields have peaked near term along with the dollar, gold and silver can both extend gains and claw back some of the recent losses”, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
We have to acknowledge the dominant trend is still lower for the oil market right now but we do continue to look for the market to stabilize soon as we do not believe the combination of over-compliance by OPEC+, tight global physical markets, and the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine can be solely offset by concerns about the global economy…wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following some backtracking on the UK fiscal spending plan.
UK PM Truss has abandoned part of her spending/tax cut plan amidst market and political pressure as she will no longer eliminate the 45% top tax rate (this is a mild positive as GILT yields were slightly lower on the news).
Oil prices rallied 3% as markets expect a material production cut from OPEC+ at this week’s meeting.
Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and while the headline reading is important as always, the Prices index will also be closely watched. If that index can decline below 50 it will be a strong signal that dis-inflation is starting to work its way into the economy (and that’s a good thing). There’s one Fed speakers today, Williams at 3:10 p.m. ET but he shouldn’t move markets.