Economic Breaker Panel: August Update

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Economic Breaker Panel (Some Loss of Momentum)

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Economic Breaker Panel: June Update

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December Economic Breaker Panel (Stronger Than Expected)

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Sevens Report – October Economic Breaker Panel

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Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

Futures are little changed this morning while international markets were mixed overnight in quiet trade as investors assess the risk-reward of reopening global economies.

Economically, China’s April PPI headline notably fell further into deflationary territory, down -3.1% from -1.5% suggesting an ongoing lack of demand throughout China’s supply chain.

Meanwhile the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. dropped by less than feared to 90.9 vs. (E) 84.8 and the forward looking “6-month outlook” jumped 24 points as business owners maintain hopes for an economic rebound in the second half of the year.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: -0.8%) while multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Bullard (9:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), Harker (12:00 p.m. ET), and Mester (5:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome lifts longer dated yields, the curve could further steepen out to multi-month highs which would be an encouraging development and add a tailwind to the equity markets today.

Economic Breaker Panel: December Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: December Update

Stock futures are flat and international markets were little changed overnight amid very quiet newswires while investors look ahead to today’s Fed decision.

Economically, the Japanese PPI release was the only report out overnight and the headline met expectations at 0.2% which did not move markets.

In the energy market, oil futures are down nearly 1% after the API reported an inventory build of +1.4MM bbls vs. (E) -2.8MM ahead of today’s EIA report.

Today, the focus will be on the Fed decision with the Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and the Fed Chair Press Conference following shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Any significant market moves before the Fed are unlikely but there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: 0.2%), and the EIA report at 10:30 a.m. ET could trigger a reaction in the energy market which could affect sector trading.

Beyond those catalysts, the trade war remains the single biggest influence on this market right now so investors will be looking for any incremental developments regarding the Dec. 15 tariff plans or news on a phase one trade deal.

An Economic Fork in the Road

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel Update: An Economy at a Fork in the Road

Global markets are trading with a moderate risk-off tone this morning as the trade war weighs on sentiment.

It remains unclear whether the U.S. will offer relief on existing tariffs as part of the “phase one” trade deal with China (which has been priced into stocks in recent weeks), or just cancel the scheduled December tariffs, which would be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, Eurozone Industrial Production was largely overlooked because of trade angst but the release was not as bad as feared (0.1% vs. E: -0.3%) further easing recession concerns in Europe.

There were other headlines overnight including escalating protests in Hong Kong which saw the Hang Seng underperform (down nearly 2%) and chatter about the public impeachment hearings in Washington today but neither are materially affecting U.S. stocks at this point as the market’s main focus remains the trade war.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: 0.3%) before focus will turn to Powell’s testimony before Congress on the state of the economy at 11:00 a.m. ET. Later in the day, there are two other Fed officials scheduled to speak before the closing bell: Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET).

Bottom line, there are a lot of headlines this morning but the trade war remains the single most important influence on this market so if expectations for tariff removal continue to fade, stocks are likely to trade with a heavy tone.

Economic Breaker Panel: How We Know the Fed is Still Too Tight

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel:  How We Know the Fed is Still Too Tight

Futures are modestly higher following news of a new Brexit agreement.

The EU and Britain have agreed to a new Brexit deal that solves the Northern Ireland border issue.  However, it remains unclear if the deal can get through Parliament, and remember that Parliament killed the last Brexit agreement between Britain and the EU

Economically, British Retail Sales slightly missed estimates (flat vs. (E) 0.2%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on earnings (some notable reports include MS: $1.10, PM: $1.35 and UNP: $2.29).

Additionally, there are several economic reports including (in order of importance): Philly Fed (E: 7.1), Industrial Production (E: -0.2%), Jobless Claims (E: 210k) and Housing Starts (E: 1.3M).  Broadly speaking, the stronger the data, the better for stocks.

Is Impeachment a Negative for Markets?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Impeachment Means for Markets
  • Economic Breaker Panel September Update

Stock futures are extending losses this morning and international equity markets were broadly lower overnight as political and trade uncertainties weigh on sentiment.

Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, formally announced an impeachment inquiry regarding President Trump’s interactions with the President of Ukraine which has added to an already crowded list of potential market headwinds.

Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet night of news with no material economic data releases and no trade war developments.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 665K) and a relatively busy schedule of Fed speakers: Evans (8:00 a.m. ET), George (10:00 a.m. ET), and Kaplan (7:00 p.m. ET). There is also a 5-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and based on yesterday’s very solid 2-Yr Auction that helped steepen the yield curve, the results could once again influence the stock market.

Beyond those scheduled market catalysts, investors will be focused on the fluid impeachment situation as well as sensitive to any trade war developments.