Why This Isn’t A Risk-Less Market (Despite The Fed Being Dovish)

Why This Isn’t A Risk-Less Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why This Isn’t A Risk-Less Market (Despite The Fed Being Dovish)
  • Understanding Why the Dollar Is Plunging

Futures are modestly higher following mixed global economic data and as investors continued to digest Wednesday’s dovish Fed decision.

Global data was mixed, but not bad, and as such isn’t increasing global slowdown fears.  In Europe, the EU flash composite PMI missed estimates (47.0 vs. (E) 48.0) while the UK reading beat (51.7 vs. (E )51.0).  In China,

Retail Sales and Industrial Production were better than feared.

Today focus will be on economic data as we get the first look at December activity and for the rally to continue, the data needs to be Goldilocks (so close to expectations).  The key reports today are, in order of importance:    Dec. Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.2), Dec. Flash Service PMI (E: 50.6), Nov. Industrial Production (E: 0.3%), Dec. Empire Manufacturing Index (E: 3.7).

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Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on August 28th, 2023

Gold prices settle higher after back-to-back session losses

“On the charts, gold has held support at the $1,900 area, but more dollar strength or rising yields would jeopardize the year to date gains,” analysts at Sevens Report Research said in Monday’s newsletter.

Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on May 25th, 2023

Gold and silver settle at their lowest prices in about 9 weeks

“The debt ceiling drama is getting most of the attention, but a hawkish shift in tone by a list of [U.S. Federal Reserve] officials recently has holstered the dollar and sent policy-sensitive rates (beyond those durations reacting to the debt negotiations) higher,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote on Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

What the Stronger Dollar Means for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Stronger Dollar Means for Markets

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as markets digest Thursday’s extension of the rally and as markets await comments from Fed Chair Powell later this morning.

Economically, the only notable numbers were Japanese CPI (met expectations at 3.5%) and German PPI (slightly hot at 4.1% vs. (E) 4.0%) but neither number changed the outlook for global inflation and, as such, aren’t moving markets.

Today there are no notable economic reports, but there are several important Fed speakers including Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET).  So far this week, markets have looked past hawkish commentary from regional Fed Presidents but if Powell hints that the Fed may hike rates in June, we could see some of this week’s rally given back.  Other Fed speakers today include Williams (8:45 a.m. ET) and Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET).

An Exciting Announcement Today

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • We Are Excited to Announce a New Service Launching This Monday, May 8th – Sevens Report Technicals (Details Below)
  • FOMC Preview – Will the Fed Signal a Pause Tomorrow?
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways: Stagflation Risks Rising?

Stock futures are slightly lower as investors digest an unexpected rate hike by the RBA and mixed economic data overnight.

The RBA raised rates 25 bp to 3.85% overnight (E: no change) citing stubbornly high inflation which triggered a hawkish reaction in markets in overnight trading.

Economically, European Manufacturing PMI data was largely in line with estimates although the readings remained deep in contraction territory while the “Narrow Core” HICP Flash reading for April was 5.6% vs. (E) 5.7%, the first decline in the reading in 10 months. On balance, the European data eased some of the hawkish concerns weighing on risk assets in pre-market trading.

Today, there are a few economic releases to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 14.8 million), Factory Orders (E: 1.3%), and JOLTS (E: 9.650 million) and investors will want to see signs of a continued but steady slowdown in growth and easing price pressures in order to keep soft landing hopes alive.

Earnings season continues today with UBER (-$0.10), PFE ($1.00), BP ($1.33), MPC ($5.75), and SYY ($0.92) reporting before the bell, and AMD ($0.56), F ($0.39), and SBUX ($0.64) after the close.


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I’ve always wanted to do more to help advisors grow their businesses, and the incredibly enthusiastic response to last week’s special technical report confirmed to me that there is a need for more technical research.

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Sevens Report Technicals will provide in-depth technical analysis of all of the asset classes, investment styles, and market sectors that we cover in the daily Sevens Report. I’ve long believed we need both fundamental and technical analysis to best navigate markets, so we created Sevens Report Technicals to be the perfect complement to the fundamentally driven Sevens Report.

Ten-year Sevens Report veteran Tyler Richey, CMT, will be the lead analyst on Sevens Report Technicals.

Sevens Report Technicals will be delivered at the start of each trading week, and will be similar in appearance and coverage to last week’s popular special technical report. The first issue will be delivered this coming Monday, May 8th.

Sevens Report Research is a retention-driven business, so like all our research products, pricing for Sevens Report Technicals will be among the lowest in the industry for the quality and depth of analysis provided at just $225/quarter or $825 per year (a savings of $75).  We are also extending a one month “Grace Period” where you can choose to cancel and receive a full refund—so there is literally no risk to try Sevens Report Technicals and see if it’s right for your business!

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To see last week’s special edition technical report, click here.

To learn more about Sevens Report Technicals, including the inspiration behind it, please click this link.

Special Technical Analysis Report

What’s in Today’s Technical Report:

  • Near and Medium-Term Trends and Risks in the S&P 500
  • A Look at Current Dynamics in the Major U.S. Equity Indices
  • Dow Theory Update
  • Key Levels to Watch in the Dollar and Commodity Markets
  • Equity Sector Dashboard (Bullish – Bearish – Neutral)
  • Treasury Market Trend Analysis: Have Rates Peaked for the Cycle?
  • What to Watch in the VIX

S&P 500 futures are little changed to start the week this morning. Last week’s pullback paused at a longer standing, multi-week uptrend line leaving the broader equity at a tipping point. How the market trades today will very likely decide if the S&P will continue to bleed lower or break last week’s downtrend and retest the recent highs.

The Nasdaq has been a notable outperformer this year but there are cracks emerging in the rally and we outline key levels to watch this week within the Report.

Among the sectors, we view five sectors as trending higher, four as market neutral, and two as trending lower.

In the currency and bond markets, both the dollar and multiple benchmark Treasury Notes have pulled back to critical price support zones and whether those levels hold or not will have a varying impact on all asset classes.

Commodities as an asset class have been fluctuating in a tight range in 2023 with gold outperforming and oil underperforming, but there are signs that oil is poised to take the lead in the complex and gold may be losing upside momentum.

Finally, the VIX is still deeply under pressure which is confusing many investors but we dive into the specific reasons for the movement in the index and what to look for in the weeks and months ahead as we continue to navigate this historically difficult market backdrop amid very uncertain macroeconomic dynamics.

Jobs Report Preview (Two Sided Risks)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview:  Two Sided Risks
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update
  • Why Yesterday’s Service PMI was a Negative for Markets

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news as markets digest this week’s underwhelming economic data ahead of the jobs report and long weekend.

Economic data overnight was better than expected as the Chinese Composite PMI beat estimates (57.8 vs. (E) 55.0) as did German Industrial Production (2.0% vs. (E) 0.0%).

Regional banks remained stable overnight following WAL’s update on deposit statistics yesterday.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 201K) and a speech by Fed president Bullard (10:00 a.m. ET).  Investors will want to see claims move higher, above 200k, to signal some moderation in the labor market, while we can expect Bullard to be hawkish, although keep in mind he does not represent the consensus at the FOMC (and as such his comments shouldn’t move markets, unless they’re a dovish surprise).

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on December 7th, 2022

Gold futures up a second straight session, but hold below $1,800 an ounce

The technical outlook remains bullish for gold near term, but “if we see rates and the dollar begin to rise, we are likely to see much of the November rally retraced in the weeks ahead,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Powell Speech Cheat Sheet

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Topics to Watch During Powell’s Speech Today
  • More Signs of Disinflation
  • Chart – Has the Dollar Bottomed?

Stock futures are cautiously higher as traders look ahead to Powell’s speech today while international markets were mixed following some key economic data overnight.

The Eurozone HICP Flash (their CPI equivalent) fell to 10.0% in November from 10.7% in October (E: 10.6%), offering fresh evidence that inflation may have finally peaked in Europe while China’s Composite PMI was worse than expected. The soft data in China however was shrugged off thanks to continued optimism about easing Covid restrictions by the government.

Today is lining up to be a busy day with markets focusing on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 200K), GDP (E: 2.7%), International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.6B), JOLTS (E: 10.4M), and Pending Home Sales (E: -5.0%) all due out this morning.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers through midday: Bowman (8:50 a.m. ET) and Cook (12:35 p.m. ET) before focus will turn to Powell’s speech in the early afternoon (1:30 p.m. ET) which will be the primary potential market catalyst today.

How Far Can Stocks Run (New Technical Targets)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Far Can Stocks Run? (New Technical Targets)
  • Why Did the Dollar and Treasury Yields Fall So Hard?

Futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from Thursday’s CPI report and as Chinese officials further signaled changes to their “Zero COVID” policy.

China made more than 20 changes to COVID policies overnight, all of which relaxed COVID rules and further signaled a departure from “Zero COVID.”

Economic data was mixed as German CPI met expectations at 10.4%, while UK GDP and Industrial Production were slightly better than expected.

Today the only notable number is Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.6) and specifically the Five-Year Inflation Expectations Index.  If that number falls further away from 3.0% (and drops to or below 2.7%) that will further fuel the idea that inflation pressures are receding, and stocks should extend the rally.