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Three Keys to a Bottom (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom Updated (Some Progress But Not There Yet)
  • Economic Takeaways – Goldilocks Trends Emerging
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

There is a tentative risk-on tone to trading this morning as U.S. equity futures track global shares higher thanks to new stimulus measures in China and easing natural gas prices in Europe.

The PBOC announced new measures to help stabilize the yuan and bolster the economy in the face of renewed Covid lockdowns and recent signs of slowing growth which was welcomed by markets overnight.

In Europe, German Manufacturers Orders fell -1.1% vs. (E) -0.4% but that is helping dial back some of the recently more hawkish policy expectations ahead of this week’s ECB meeting.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: ISM Services Index (E: 55.4), and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

That should leave the focus on currency and bond markets in the U.S. if both the dollar and short-duration yields can stabilize, and not move materially higher, then stocks should be able to make an attempt to stabilize after Friday’s late session reversal lower.

Additionally, if we see natural gas prices in Europe continue to pull back from Friday and yesterday’s rise, that should help the risk-on mood in markets persist as the Nord Stream 1 halt was the main catalyst for stocks rolling over on Friday.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

Futures are solidly lower as negative China/COVID headlines and lackluster economic data weighed on markets.

Chinese authorities put the city of Chengdu (population 17 million) in a COVID lockdown, reminding markets “Zero COVID” is still in effect.

Economically, global manufacturing PMIs were underwhelming as all major regions (EU, UK and China) posted numbers below 50 (signaling contraction).

Today focus will be on economic data and the most important number is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.2).  Markets need to see an in-line reading, because if it’s a very strong number that will increase hawkish concerns about the Fed, and if it’s a very weak number (below 50) that will spike stagflation concerns.  Outside of the PMI we also get Jobless Claims (E: 248K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 10.7%) and there’s also one Fed speaker, Bostic at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Technical Update: What Would Make This Bounce Sustainable?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Update:  What Would Make This Bounce Sustainable?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

Futures are slightly lower following a busy night of mixed earnings reports and ahead of today’s ECB decision.

Politically, Italian PM Draghi formally resigned and there will be elections in Italy this fall, which is adding to general macro-economic uncertainty.

Earnings overnight were mixed although TSLA posted solid results and the stock rallied 3% after hours.

Today will be a busy day for economic data and earnings and the key event is the ECB Decision.  A 25 bps hike is expected although a 50 bps hike is very possible.  From a stock standpoint, markets will be hoping for a 50 bps hike because that will boost the euro and weigh on the dollar (the dollar being this high is a problem for U.S. corporate earnings).  Outside of the ECB we also get Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and Philadelphia Fed (E: -3.3).

On the earnings front, results continue to roll in and so far this season they are decidedly mixed (not good, but not materially worse than feared, either).  Some results we’re watching today include:  T ($0.59), FCX ($0.80), UNP ($2.38), COF ($5.09).

Three Keys to a Bottom (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom (Updated)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Turns to Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Flash PMI on Friday is the Big Report to Watch

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a generally quiet weekend.

Investors continue to hope for a near-term peak in inflation and Friday’s drop in University of Michigan inflation expectations (2.8% vs. (E) 3.0%) and multi-month lows in the Empire Manufacturing price indices fueled that hope and resulted in the rally on Friday and in futures this morning.

Today’s focus will shift to earnings, and they will dominate market action early this week as there are no Fed speakers and no market-moving economic reports till later this week.  If earnings are better than feared, they can help extend this rally in the near term while disappointing results will cause more volatility.  Some reports we’re watching today include BAC ($ 0.77), GS ($6.99), SCHW ($0.91), IBM ($ 2.29).

Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table (Important Changes)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Inflation (and CPI on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Inflation and Growth Data This Week

Futures are modestly lower following new COVID-related shutdowns in China.

Macau will close most businesses, including casinos, for one week following a COVID outbreak while Shanghai will continue with massive testing, in what is a signal that the “Zero COVID” policy is at least partially still in effect.

Geo-politically, Canada released a turbine to Gazprom (a Russian energy company) and the hope is that will result in increased natural gas flows to Europe in the coming weeks, putting more pressure on commodity prices.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Williams at 2:00 p.m. ET.  Futures are taking the new lockdowns in China somewhat in stride but if headlines imply anything like a repeat of the Shanghai lockdowns of March-May, expect stocks to drop as a result.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are slightly higher despite negative COVID news from China and after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he intends to resign.

COVID cases rose in Shanghai to the highest level since late May, prompting mass testing and increasing concerns of another lockdown.

Politically, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce his resignation, but this shouldn’t impact stocks.

Today’s focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and a continued slow drift higher will imply the jobs market is softening, which is needed if the Fed is going to get to “Peak Hawkishness” sooner than later.  We also have two Fed speakers, Bullard (1:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (1:00 p.m. ET) and we should expect their commentary to be hawkish (they’re two of the louder hawks on the Fed).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 6, 2022

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The Dow Ends Higher — and What Else Is Happening in the Stock Market Today

We need to see more proof those Keys to the Bottom are becoming more likely for stocks to move materially higher from here…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Market Multiple Table: June Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – June Update

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as bond yields continued to rise overnight thanks to a more hawkish than expected central bank decision.

The RBA raised rates by 50 bps vs. (E) 40 bps overnight citing elevated inflation pressures which have rekindled fears about more aggressive monetary policy globally.

Meanwhile, economic data was soft as German Manufacturers Orders fell -2.7% vs. (E) 0.5% which underscores the recent loss of momentum in economic growth.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report: International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.2B) which is not likely to materially move markets while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

That will leave investors focused on the latest move higher in yields as that was the main reason for the steady fade in stocks yesterday. To that point, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move the bond market, and for stocks to move higher today, we will need to see yields level out.

Bounce or Bottom? A Key Level to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bounce or Bottom?  A Key Level to Watch

Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings and continued reopening in China.

Shanghai continued to reopen and Beijing is still avoiding the most draconian lockdowns and that’s helping broader market sentiment.

Economic data was sparse as the only notable report was Euro Zone M3 (6.2% vs. (E) 6.3%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3%, 4.9%) and if it underwhelms vs. expectations and furthers the idea that inflation has peaked, look for a continuation of this week’s rally.  We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.1) and the key there will be the five-year inflation expectations.  If they drop below 3.0%, that’ll be an additional positive for stocks today.

Are Bonds a Buy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • If a Recession Is Imminent, Are Bonds a Buy?

Stock futures are down more than 1% this morning following more negative earnings news in the tech sector.

SNAP is down 30% this morning after issuing a profit warning late yesterday, citing a quickly deteriorating macroeconomic environment that is weighing on tech broadly.

Economically, Composite Flash PMI data slightly missed estimates in Europe overnight, but notably remained comfortably in expansion territory, easing some concerns about a looming recession.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on economic data early with the PMI Composite Flash (E: 55.5) and New Home Sales (E: 748K) due to be released and the market will be looking for fresh signs that the economy is in good shape and not significantly losing momentum right now. There is also a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today which could move yields on the short end of the curve, and in turn, impact equity trading.

Focus will turn to monetary policy midday with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak at 12:20 p.m. ET. Any hints at a less aggressive approach to policy tightening in the months ahead will be welcomed by investors and could help the latest attempt at a relief rally regain its footing. However, the combination of soft data in the morning and a hawkish-leaning Powell could send stocks lower.