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Why the Bullish Argument Got Slightly Weaker Last Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Bullish Argument Got Slightly Weaker Last Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Goldilocks Data Keep the Rally Going?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The “Big Three” Monthly Economic Reports this Week

Futures are solidly higher following a quiet weekend and despite no progress on averting a government shutdown.

Chances of a partial government shutdown starting Wednesday are rising and if that occurs, the biggest impact for markets will be via delayed data (possibly including Friday’s jobs report).

There were no material economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on any progress on averting a shutdown (a shutdown wouldn’t be a material market negative, but it’s definitely something the market could do without).

Economically, the only notable report is Pending Home Sales (E: 0.2%) while there are several Fed speakers:  Hammack (8:00 a.m. ET), Musalem & Williams (1:30 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, solid data and dovish Fed speak is what the market needs not just today, but all week, to rebound from last week’s declines.

 

Were Powell’s Comments Really That Bullish?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Were Powell’s Comments Really That Bullish?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Tech Pullback Continue? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on Inflation (Core PCE Price Index on Friday)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a quiet weekend of news.

Economically, the only notable report was German IFO Business Expectations, which jumped to a one year high (91.6 vs. (E) 90.8).

There was no notable geopolitical news over the weekend.

Today there are two economic reports, Chicago Fed (Prior: -0.10), New Home Sales (E: 628K) and two Fed speakers, Logan (3:15 p.m. ET) and Williams (7:15 p.m. ET), but none of that should move markets as the economic reports shouldn’t change the outlook for growth while Powell largely acknowledged a likely rate cut in September (making other Fed commentary less important).

On earnings, there are two reports to watch today: PDD ($1.69) and HEI ($1.12).

 

Tom Essaye: Inflation-Driven Bitcoin Drop Doesn’t Derail Long-Term Bullish Outlook

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Sevens Report founder says institutional adoption and regulation support crypto’s future despite near-term volatility

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls 7% as U.S. Inflation Hikes Pressure Rate Cut Prospects

Bitcoin slid 7% on Friday as hotter U.S. inflation data weighed on rate-cut expectations, sparking a broad risk-off move in markets. Despite the pullback, the cryptocurrency remains up roughly 25% year-to-date and has rallied nearly 57% from April’s lows.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the short-term volatility reflects Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. “Inflation pressures are clearly a headwind in the near term, but the longer-term outlook hasn’t changed,” Essaye noted. He pointed to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as key drivers supporting Bitcoin’s structural bullish case.

“Volatility will always be part of crypto, but the foundation is getting stronger,” Essaye said, stressing that macro shocks don’t erase the sector’s long-term growth potential.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Five Bullish Market Assumptions Updated

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Five Bullish Market Assumptions Updated: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Bullish Market Assumptions Updated (Are They Still True?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Important Updates on Fed Rate Cuts and Economic Growth
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Fed Meeting Wednesday, ISM and Jobs Report Friday

Futures are little changed following an increase in geo-political tensions over the weekend and ahead of the first really busy week of 2024.

Three U.S. soldiers were killed in an attack in Jordan by Iranian backed militants and that’s further escalating tensions in the region and oil rallied in response.

There were no economic reports overnight.

This is the first truly busy week of 2024 as we have a Fed decision on Wednesday and a jobs report on Friday and it’s the most important week of earnings season.  But, the week starts slowly as there are no economic reports today and minimal earnings.  So, focus will remain on geo-politics and 1) Any additional attacks on U.S. soldiers in the region or 2) Information about a U.S. retaliatory strike could push oil higher and weigh on stocks.

Earnings Today:  WHR ($ 3.64), SOFI (E: $0.00), CLF ($-0.07).

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Is the Dovish Fed Decision A Bullish Gamechanger?

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Is the Dovish Fed Decision A Bullish Gamechanger? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Dovish Fed Decision A Bullish Gamechanger?
  • What Sectors and Assets Benefit Most from the Surprisingly Dovish Fed?

Futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from yesterday’s surprisingly dovish Fed decision.

Global investors aggressively embraced the idea of global rate cuts as the 10-year yield fell below 4% overnight.

On earnings, they’ve been soft this week and that continued with disappointing ADBE results (stock down 5% pre-market) although that’s not impacting the markets more broadly.

The busy week continues today with a BOE Rate Decision (E: No Change) and an ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) and markets expect no rate cuts but dovish tones from both central banks.  If that’s the reality, it’ll just add more fuel to the dovish rally.

Economically, the key reports today are Jobless Claims (E: 223k) and Retail Sales (E: -0.1%).  The Fed’s dovish pivot will overshadow these reports unless they show a sudden deterioration (so spike in claims and drop in retail sales) and barring those results, they shouldn’t move markets.

Bullish

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Bullish or Bearish? My Analysis

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Bullish or Bearish? My Analysis.: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish or Bearish?  My Analysis.
  • EIA and OPEC Analysis

Futures are slightly higher following more encouraging inflation readings and despite underwhelming Chinese economic data.

EU HICP (their CPI) rose less than expected (3.6% vs. (E) 3.9%) furthering the idea the ECB is done with rate hikes.

Economically, Chinese Nov. PMIs disappointed as both the manufacturing and composite PMIs missed estimates.

Focus now turns to economic data as today and tomorrow contain the week’s most important economic reports.  Today, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2%, 3.5%) is the key report and anything that shows a greater than expected decline in inflation will likely spur a rally.

Other notable data today includes Jobless Claims (E: 219K) and Pending Home Sales Index (E: -2.0%) and we also have one Fed speaker: Williams (9:15 p.m. ET).  Again, data that is “Goldilocks” on growth combined with commentary from Fed officials that imply rate hikes are done should continue to support stocks.

Bullish or Bearish?  My Analysis.

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Is the Bullish Argument for Stocks Becoming Unsustainable?

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The Bullish Argument for Stocks: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Bullish Argument for Stocks Becoming Unsustainable?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Disinflation Continue or Reverse?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Wednesday is the Key Report This Week

Futures are moderately higher on encouraging Chinese economic data. As well as multiple financial publications predicted the Fed is done with rate hikes.

Chinese New Yuan Loans rose 1,360 billion vs. (E) 1,200 billion hinting the Chinese economy may be stabilizing.

Reuters, Bloomberg and the WSJ have published articles since Friday essentially saying the Fed is done with rate hikes and while that’s not new news, it’s helping futures rally this morning.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers. Today’s focus will remain on Treasury yields and if yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses.

Join us for an in-depth exploration of the stock market’s current trajectory. 

Bullish argument

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Dow Theory Update: Bullish Reversal in July

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update – Bullish Reversal in July
  • Central Bank Decision Expectations: Fed, ECB, and BOE this Week

Futures are modestly lower as traders digest mixed mega-cap tech earnings and look ahead to today’s Fed decision.

On the earnings front, GOOGL is up 8%+ in premarket trade thanks to strong reported revenue growth while MSFT is down 3.5% on soft sales and weaker guidance specifically in the company’s cloud computing division.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 727K) before focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET (E: +25 bp hike) and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

A busy week of earnings will also continue with T ($0.60), BA (-$0.99), and KO ($0.72) releasing quarterly results before the bell while META ($2.87) and STX (-$0.26) will report after the close.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on May 22nd, 2023

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Stocks may take a hit by June if the dollar keeps rising, analyst says

The U.S. dollar, which rallied to a two-month high last week, is demonstrating a bullish signal from a technical perspective and has the potential to trend up in the coming months. The greenback’s strength will weigh on equities, starting by the beginning of June, noted Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Was Powell’s Speech That Bullish? No. Here’s Why.

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Powell’s Speech That Bullish?  No.  Here’s Why
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest yesterday’s post-Powell speech rally and focus on key economic data today (manufacturing PMI) and tomorrow (jobs report).

Global economic data underwhelmed overnight, as the Euro Zone manufacturing PMI missed estimates (47.1 vs. (E) 47.3) while the UK manufacturing PMI remained firmly in contraction territory (46.5 vs. (E) 46.2).

Looking forward to today, there are three important economic reports including (in order of importance):  ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.9), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 5.0% y/y), and Jobless Claims (E: 235K).  Markets will want to see 1) More evidence of easing price pressures in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Core PCE Price Index and 2) Further labor market deterioration in jobless claims if the data is to help extend yesterday’s rally.

We also get three Fed speakers today, Logan (9:25 a.m. ET), Bowman (9:30 a.m. ET), and Barr (3:00 p.m. ET), but their commentary should be largely overshadowed by Powell’s less hawkish-than-feared remarks yesterday and I don’t expect them to move markets.