Was Bullard That Hawkish? (No)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Bullard That Hawkish?  (No).

Futures are moderately higher following more geo-political progress amidst an otherwise quiet night.

Russian officials signaled they are open to high-level talks with the U.S. on strategic stability, which is being taken as another (small) step towards an ultimate cease-fire.

Economically, the only notable number was UK Retail Sales and they were better than expected, rising 0.6% vs. (E) 0.2%.

Today the calendar is sparse with just Existing Home Sales (E: 4.360M) and one Fed speaker, Collins (8:40 a.m. ET) but if she doesn’t provide any hawkish surprises, this early rally can continue as stocks recoup yesterday’s Bullard inspired losses.

Are the Hot CPI and Bullard’s Hawkish Commentary Bearish Gamechanger?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are the Hot CPI and Bullard’s Hawkish Comments Bearish Gamechangers?

Futures are moderately weaker mostly on momentum from Thursday’s selloff and despite some reassuring commentary from Fed officials overnight.

Fed Presidents Daly and Barkin both pushed back on the idea of a 50 basis point rate hike in March, countering the hawkish commentary from Fed President Bullard.

Economic data was mixed as German CPI met estimates (4.9% y/y) while UK GDP and Industrial Production both slightly missed estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports and no Fed speakers scheduled, so focus will be on Consumer Sentiment (E: 67.5) and specifically the inflation expectations indices.  If one year and five year inflation expectations can decline, that will help ease some inflation concerns and could spark a rebound later this morning.