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Yellen and Draghi Speech Preview, August 25, 2017

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Both Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the conference today, and while neither is expected to say anything market moving, there are always surprises, so we want to preview their remarks briefly.

Yellen’s Speech: 10:00 A.M. EST

Key question: Will Yellen give us any color on whether we get a rate hike in December?

Likely Answer: (withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

What’s Expected: I’d give it about an 80% probability that Yellen does not even mention monetary policy
and instead just speaks broadly about the Fed’s role in helping ensure financial stability.

Wild Card to Watch: If there’s a risk of a surprise here, it’s for a “hawkish” surprise. Yellen could tie in the idea that in order to ensure future financial stability, the Fed needs to continue to remove accommodation and get interest rates back to normal levels.

Again, I think it’s unlikely she’d use this opportunity to discuss policy (unlike Bernanke, she’s never used Jackson Hole as a forum to discuss policy). Still, there is a chance  (20% if my other probability is 80%).

If she does surprise markets, though, look for a textbook (and potentially intense) “hawkish” market response: Dollar and bond yields up (maybe big), stocks down, commodities and gold down.

Draghi Speech: 3:00 P.M. EST

Key Question: Will Draghi forcefully hint at a tapering announcement in September?

Likely Answer: (withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

What’s Expected: Nothing specific. Draghi is not expected to speak or reference policy, mainly because the ECB meeting is less than three weeks away.

Wildcard to Watch: Commentary on the euro. While Draghi likely won’t say anything about expected policy, he might comment on the strength in the euro. It’s widely thought that the surging euro (up 10% vs. the dollar this year) would cause the ECB to be “dovish” and potentially delay tapering.

But, Draghi has pushed back on this notion recently, saying that the euro appreciation is the result of a better economy and rising inflation (hence virtuous).

If he reiterates those comments, or downplays the impact of a rising euro, that will be “hawkish” and the euro and German bond yields (and likely US Treasury yields) will rise, while the dollar will fall. This outcome would likely be positive for US stocks (on dollar weakness).

Bottom Line
In all likelihood, Jackson Hole should be a non-event, as it’s simply too close to the September ECB Meeting (Sept. 7) or the September Fed meeting (Sept. 20).

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FOMC Meeting Takeaways, August 17, 2017

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The FOMC minutes resulted in a “dovish” reaction in currencies and bonds, but in reality they didn’t reveal anything new.

Takeaway
The two big takeaways from Wednesday’s FOMC were 1) The Fed is united in reducing the balance sheet in September (which will be the start of the removal of additional accommodation) and 2) The Fed is divided on whether to hike rates in December because of low inflation. Neither of those takeaways should be surprising to anyone who has been paying attention.

The former (that the Fed is committed to reducing its balance sheet) was reaffirmed by the minutes yesterday, and while the market seems to be ignoring this event, I do want to remind everyone that the Fed will be reducing its Treasury holdings for the first time in a decade. That will, over time, have a “tightening” effect on the economy (although admittedly not at first).

The latter was where the market generated it’s “dovish” interpretation of the Fed minutes, but in reality the fact that “some” Fed members want to not hike rates again this year shouldn’t be a surprise. Bullard, Kashkari, Mester and others have voiced caution about further rate hikes in the past few weeks due to low inflation.

Conversely, Dudley, Williams and others have stressed very low unemployment and still-loosening financial conditions as reasons to continue with gradual rate increases. Otherwise, they risk getting behind a sudden upshot in inflation that forces them to raise rates very quickly.

Point being, we know there is this divide, and it will be resolved in the coming months based on inflation data. If inflation data bottoms and heads higher, they’ll hike rates in December. If it doesn’t, they probably won’t. That’s no different than it was Wednesday at noon.

From a market standpoint, the reaction was “dovish” as the dollar and bond yields dropped, and stocks rallied modestly. But, yesterday’s FOMC minutes should not be enough to elicit a material rally in stocks, nor should it be enough to push the dollar or bond yields to recent 2017 lows.

About the only notable takeaway from the minutes is that it’s likely anecdotally bullish for the “Stagnation” portfolio…(withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

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What Does “Reflation” Actually Mean?, July 7, 2017

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What Does “Reflation” Actually Mean?

One of the reasons I started the Sevens Report more than five years ago was because I hated the overuse of jargon by analysts and commentators. Frankly, markets and economics are not particularly complicated topics. There are a lot of variables involved, so getting the future right is difficult. However, understanding market dynamics and economic conditions is actually mostly common sense, because markets and economies are just the sum of collective actions by people. And, since people generally act in their own best interests, it’s not too difficult to understand markets and economics once you get past the jargon.

To that point, I’ve found myself using the terms “reflation” and “cyclical” entirely too much lately. That’s jargon, and I want to make sure that everyone knows exactly what I mean when I say “reflation trade” or “cyclical outperformance.”

So, what is Reflation?

Reflation is simply the idea that economic growth is going to accelerate in the future. To understand why we use the term reflation, think of the economy as a soccer ball. The ball is full of air when we have consistent 3% GDP growth. But, fallout from the financial crisis has put GDP growth around 2% for nearly a decade. So, the soccer ball (i.e. the economy) is deflated.

However, if we see economic acceleration back to consistent 3% growth, the ball (i.e. the economy) has been “reflated.” So, any economic news that implies better growth is termed “reflation.”

And, since reflation is just the expectation of an accelerating economy, people (i.e. investors and the market) react to that expectation. That reaction, typically, is comprised of:

1) Selling bonds (so higher rates) because in an accelerating economy central banks hike rates and inflation rises, both of which are negative for bonds.

2) They allocate investment capital to sectors of the economy that are more reactive to better economic growth.

These sectors are called cyclicals, because their profitability rises and falls with economic growth (like a cycle). Banks (better economy=more demand for money), industrials (better economy=capital investment in projects), small caps (better economy=rising tide for products and more availability of capital), and consumer discretionary (better economy=more spending money) all are cyclical sectors.

Companies in those sectors usually make more money when the economy is getting better, and the anticipation of that attracts capital at the expense of bonds and “non-cyclical” sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, and, increasingly, super-cap tech.

Up until June, the non-cyclicals outperformed because there was no evidence of higher rates or better growth. But in June central banks sent a shot of confidence into the markets, and since then, in anticipation of that economic acceleration, cyclical sectors have outperformed. And, if today’s jobs report is strong, beyond any short term “Taper Tantrum 2.0” that’s likely a trend that will continue, especially given the trend change in bonds.

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What Does Reflation Actually Mean for the Economy-

When Will the Decline in Bond Yields Matter?, June 27, 2017

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For three months, we and other macro analysts have been warning that the bond market, via falling yields and a flattening yield curve, was sending a worrisome signal about future economic growth and inflation. And, that falling bond yields would act as a headwind on stocks.

Over that three months, the S&P 500 has moved steadily higher.

when will bond market yields matter?

When will this chart matter? The S&P 500 (bar chart) has been diverging from yields (green line chart) for three-plus months. At some point, that gap must close.

Now, given that, it might seem like falling bonds yields don’t matter to stocks. However, decades of experience in this business combined with listening to experienced analysts and traders tells me that bond yields always matter to stocks… it’s just a question of “when” they matter.

Regarding when, most of us are working on a medium/longer-term time frame (i.e. quarters and years), so getting the bigger market signals right is more important than outperforming over a few weeks.

To that point, if bond yields do not reverse in the coming weeks/months, then I am quite sure that over the medium/longer term the stock market is in for a potentially significant pullback. Avoiding that pullback will be the key to multi-year outperformance.

So, the really important question is: “When will low bond yields matter?”

I believe the answer is: When investors realize bond yields are warning about a slowing economy, not lower inflation.

Right now, stock bulls are saying the drop in Treasury yields is just due to declining inflation—not because of potential slower economic growth.

Specifically, they’re pointing to statistical measures of inflation such as the CPI, PCE and the Price Deflator in GDP. Those measures of inflation are falling, which usu-ally means deflation (which is bad for stocks).

But, the bulls aren’t as concerned about falling statistical inflation because, in their view, inflation has changed. Specifically, there is a growing school of thought that in a technology-dominated world, the old inflation statistics (CPI/PCE/Price Deflator) no longer capture true inflation in the economy.

For instance, those inflation statistics are currently being driven down by 1) Lower oil, 2) The Amazon effect, where retail margins are relentless slashed, and 3) General technology making most everyday items cheaper and more efficient.

However, those price declines aren’t bad for the economy, and they don’t reflect the lack of consumer demand that usually accompanies falling prices. Technology and margin compression is making these prices fall, not an unwillingness of consumers to spend.

Meanwhile, asset and other forms of inflation are rising quickly. Over the past few years, home prices are up; rents are up, car prices are up, airfares are up, health insurance is up, tuition is up, the stock market is up and the bond market is up. So, the prices of all the things we “need” are up, but the prices of discretionary items (HD TVs, laptops, tablets, dishwashers, appliances) are down. Since CPI measures consumer goods heavily, inflation statistics are subdued.

Based on this logic, many investors aren’t sweating the decline in bond yields, because they believe, for now, that it’s just reflecting the decline in statistical inflation and not a future slowing of actual economic growth.

The key will be to recognize when investors begin to believe low bond yields reflect slower economic growth. That will be the time to get seriously defensive in asset allocations. Yet as Monday showed, with the market ignoring the soft Durable Goods report, we’re not there yet. But if this data doesn’t turn around, we will get there. Unfortunately, we don’t believe it’s different this time and if bond yields don’t start rising in the near term, then stocks will eventually suffer, like they’ve done virtually every time we’ve seen this type of stock/bond discrepancy.

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Oil Outlook: Getting More Bearish, March 15, 2017

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Oil Rig - Oil Report was BearishWhy the Monthly OPEC Report Was Bearish Oil

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Oil remains the big story, as its early morning sell-off to multi-month lows prompted a pullback in stock futures, and ultimately the major US equity indices opened lower. WTI futures finished the day down 1.43%, only slightly above where they opened ahead of the late-November OPEC meeting, where members agreed to collectively cut output.

OPEC released its monthly oil market report yesterday, and the big catalyst in the data was a self-reported increase in February oil production by the de facto leader of the cartel, Saudi Arabia. According to direct communication, Saudi Arabian oil output rose 263.3K b/d to 10.01M b/d. The dip below the psychological 10M mark in early 2017 helped futures stay afloat above $50, as Saudi Arabia was showing their commitment to price support by cutting below their allotted quota (which in fairness they are still below). While data gathered by secondary sources showed another drop of 68.1K b/d to 9.80M b/d in Saudi production, the markets focused on the bearish direct communication data, as it suggests that Saudi Arabia’s commitment to oil cuts may be becoming exhausted.

Another notable takeaway from the release was that OPEC only projects that US oil supply will grow at 340K b/d in 2017. Still, at the current pace (which we will admit does not seem sustainable through the medium term), US producers have already brought 318K b/d online in 2017. Today’s EIA report very well could show an increase through that annual expected rise of 340K b/d.

Bottom line, the rapid increase in US production in recent months has been the biggest long-term headwind for the oil market, as it has offset the efforts of the global production cut agreement while simultaneously causing angst within the ranks of OPEC (namely the Saudis) as they start to see market share slip away.

Without the full commitment of Saudi Arabia to the global production cut agreement, the deal loses a lot of its luster, as they are the key player who has always taken on the bulk of the cuts and taken the near-term hit in market share for the longer-term benefit of the entire cartel. Meanwhile, “compliance cheating” by other members is historically high, and the chances that compliance remains as high as it is right now if Saudi Arabia begins to increase production are essentially zero.

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Chart of the Day: 10 Yr Yield Screams to New Multi-Year High

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The 10 Year Note yield screamed to a more than 2 year high yesterday in response to the more hawkish than expected Fed Announcement.

 

Bonds and Currencies Report (BOE Surprise?)

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It was a generally quiet day in the currency and bond markets as the various cross currents (election, M&A, economic data, etc.) all largely cancelled each other out.  The Dollar Index closed little changed after spending most of the day modestly stronger.

The euro was modestly weak for most of trading Monday (down 0.30% at the low) thanks to a slightly soft October core HICP (their CPI). Year over year, core HICP rose just 0.7% vs. (E) 0.8%, and with inflation still sluggish the idea that the ECB will materially reduce its QE program remains an outlier. The risk to markets is that they underwhelm with their extension (i.e. taper and extend, as opposed to extending the current 80 billion monthly purchases).

It is just one indicator, and growth has appeared better in October, so it wasn’t a materially dovish influence and the euro rallied yesterday afternoon to finish with mild losses. Going forward, The Sevens Report continues to expect the euro to chop largely sideways near 1.10 vs. the dollar until we have more color on the ECB’s plans for its QE program.

Looking elsewhere in the currency markets it was quiet. The yen, Aussie and loonie were all little changed (the loonie held up well despite the plunge in oil, down just 0.20%).

It was equally quiet in bonds as Treasuries rallied small (the 10-year yield rose 1 basis point while the 30-year Treasury rose 0.33%). Part of that was buying following the soft EMU HICP (remember, deflation in Europe sends money into higher-yielding US Treasuries) and some of that rally was just general election angst given the October email surprise.

Going forward, the FOMC, BOE and jobs report are the next significant catalysts for the bond market, so I’d expect generally quiet trade into those events starting Wednesday.

Bottom line, if those events are hawkish and the 10-year yield moves up through 1.90% and towards 2% (remember the 10-year yield rose 11 basis points last week, so it could theoretically get close to 2%) that will be a headwind on stocks.

The Bank of England meeting is the most important Central Bank meeting this week.

Much of the media focus is on the Fed meeting this week, but actually the central bank meeting with the greatest potential market impact is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.

The reason is well known. US Treasury yields continue to follow global yields (remember, Bund and GILT yields rose more than Treasury yields last week), and if BOE Governor Carney disappoints markets on Thursday we’ll see GILT yields move higher, and that will drag Treasury yields higher and become a headwind on stocks.

The risk into Thursday’s meeting is that Carney backs away from his promise for more stimulus this year because of the near-20%, post-Brexit collapse in the British pound, which is causing an uptick in inflation pressures across Britain.

Now, to be clear, he’s not expected to dial back his support for more stimulus, but it is possible, and that’s a risk to stocks as markets have priced in another move by the BOE (in December).

So, while the media likely won’t cover it nearly as much as a likely anti-climatic Fed or jobs report, this BOE announcement actually has the biggest potential to surprise markets this week. Stay tuned.

Election Investing, Stock Market Sweet Spot & Bonds Italian (Video)

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Another episode with Tom Essaye and Adam Johnson on Market’s Bell discussing: Election Investing, Stock Market Sweet Spot & Bonds Italian Style.

The Market’s Bell with WSJ Best-Selling Author Simon Constable

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WSJ best-selling author Simon Constable puts a little British spin on the US economy where to invest now. He’s fun, brutally honest and wicked smart.

Is the Bond Bull Market Over? (Central Bank Preview)

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SL: Is the Bond Bull Market Over? (Central Bank Preview)

In the next 24 hours we’re going to get the answer to two very important questions:

  1. Is the Bond Bull Market Over?
  2. Have We Seen the Highs in Stocks for 2016?

And, it’s the Bank of Japan that likely will decide the answers to those questions, which will decide whether we see a potentially sharp decline in both stocks and bonds.

I’m not one for patting myself on the back, but I don’t know of many other research firms that were pounding the table back in August (when the market was quiet) saying:

  1. The July rally in stocks was in trouble because global bond yields were moving higher (they did, and the S&P 500 is down 2% from the August highs), and
  2. That the Bank of Japan and ECB were more important to US stocks than the Fed (the ECB caused a pullback two weeks ago and the Bank of Japan may do so tomorrow).

So, now I’m reiterating that tomorrow is a potentially very important day for clients’ stock and bond holdings, because even if we don’t see a lot of volatility immediately following the meetings, the Bank of Japan decision may mean the continuation of this rally in global bond yields, and the decline in stocks.


And, that could have significant consequences on clients returns as we enter the fourth quarter.

We are committed to making sure our paid subscribers know, before their competition, whether the Bank of Japan will cause global bond yields to move higher or lower, because that will be the key to getting clients properly positioned to outperform in Q4.

We’ve already delivered our Plain-English BOJ Preview to paid subscribers and they already know:

  1. What The Market Expects from the BOJ
  2. What will Make the Meeting “Dovish” and the likely market response
  3. What will Make the Meeting “Hawkish” and the likely market response

So, tomorrow, while other advisors and investors are searching WSJ.com, MarketWatch or CNBC to try and determine whether the meetings were bullish or bearish for stocks and bonds, our subscribers will already know.

But, more importantly, our subscribers know that at 7 a.m. Thursday morning we will deliver clear, Plain-English analysis of what the meetings mean for all asset classes (Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies) in the short and long term, and what tactical ETFs or general allocations we think will outperform in Q4 and beyond (and if that means raising cash, we’ll say it!).

Our paid subscribers won’t have to wait for a delayed, compliance-approved recap from their brokerage firm that just explains what the BOJ or Fed did, and ignores how to either protect gains or profit from the decisions.

We are going to tell our subscribers (at 7 a.m., and in plain English): 1) What Happened, 2) What it Means for Client Holdings (Stocks, Bonds, OI, Gold, the Dollar) and 3) How We Think We Can Make Money from It.

And, because this is such an important time for markets, we will be hosting a special webinar this Thursday at 1 P.M. EDT titled: “Breakout or Breakdown? 4th Quarter Market Preview.”

We will discuss the outlook for both stocks and bonds (and how we think investors should be positioned) heading into the 4th quarter.

There are a lot of moving pieces to tomorrow’s BOJ meeting and there aren’t a lot of clear, easy-to-read previews out there, so I’ve included an excerpt of our BOJ Preview as a courtesy:

 

BOJ Preview: What’s Expected

The fear going into tomorrow’s meeting will be that the BOJ will tacitly admit that it is indeed out of bullets, and is no longer able to provide meaningful stimulus to the Japanese economy. And while Japan is a unique case, this matters to all developed stock markets for two reasons.

  • First, and most directly, if the BOJ raises a symbolic white flag tomorrow, Japanese Government Bond yields will keep rising, which will make US Treasury yields rise, and that will keep a headwind on stocks.

  • Second, global stock markets have been supported (or propped up, depending on your definition) by the idea of ever more accommodative central banks. If the most aggressive central bank just declared itself impotent to spur further growth or inflation, what does that say about the ability of other central banks to support stocks prices/the economy if we see a slowdown? I often say at its heart, the market is little more than a confidence indicator, and a BOJ that disappoints markets again will strike a big blow to market confidence.

Bottom line, for global stock and bond markets that have been driven higher by the expectation of forever-low rates and ever-increasing central bank stimulus, having the most active player tacitly admit defeat is not good.

Now that we have the context, let’s look at what’s expected (there are a lot of moving pieces here, so bear with me):

  • QE: The first thing I will look at when I get up Wednesday will be to see if the BOJ increased the amount of QE. What’s Expected: No change to QE. If there is no change to QE, this BOJ decision will be at best neutral for stocks.
    • Dovish If (and Likely Market Reaction): Restricted for Subscribers
    • Hawkish If (and Likely Market Reaction): Restricted for Subscribers

     

  • Interest Rates:
    What’s Expected: Deposit Rate Cut from -.1% to -.3%.

     

    • Dovish If (and Likely Market Reaction): Restricted for Subscribers
    • Hawkish If (and Likely Market Reaction): Restricted for Subscribers

Wildcard to Watch: If the BOJ increases the inflation target from 2% to 3% (or close to 3%) that will be a surprise dovish move, and be taken as an unexpected positive (positive for stocks, negative for global bond yields).

 

Have a Plan In Place If Yields Keep Rising (and Stocks Keep Falling)

If you’re like me, and most advisors and investors, the biggest risk for tomorrow’s meetings is that global bond yields keep rising and stocks keep falling, creating an extension of the past 10 days where both stocks and bond holdings are falling together.

Given that risk, we spent last week providing subscribers with our “Higher Rate Playbook” they can refer to if we see that negative outcome, because in that scenario protecting profits and finding sectors that can outperform will be critically important! Paid subscribers already have this tactical playbook they can refer to, because we all know thinking clearly gets much more difficult when markets are falling!  

Play #1: Get Short the Long End of the Yield Curve, and/or Reduce the Overall Duration in any Bond Ladders

If we see a sustained decline in bonds/rally in yields, the belly and long end of the yield curve will get hit much harder than the short end of the yield curve.

There are two reasons for this:

First, the long end (say beyond 10 years) is over inflated because of foreign money, and as such has a lot further to fall before we get to compelling values.

Second, the short end of the curve (really 2 years or less) trades off Fed expectations, and the Fed simply isn’t going to raise rates quickly regardless of what happens in the markets (and especially if we see a selloff in stocks). So, the Fed will anchor the short end of the yield curve while the longer end rises, meaning the declines in short-term bonds will be less than in longer-term bonds.

ETFs to Get “Short” the Long Bond (there are many ETFs to do this but this is a list of the most liquid and targeted): Restricted for Subscribers

What to Buy in the Bond Markets: Restricted for Subscribers.
We don’t think everything in the bond market is toxic and we continue to have a top pick in the fixed income market for incremental capital that is less than five-year duration and the best alternative in a bond market that may be broadly declining.


Play #2: Focus on Good (but not Great) Credit Quality in Corporates

First, I think there may be opportunities for additional yield in the tier right below the top end of investment grade.
Point being, I would take the extra yield in that space between AAAs and junk, because barring a broad economic slowdown, corporate balance sheets are as strong as they’ve been in years.

Second, if I had a large allocation to junk bonds, I would rotate into higher-quality corporates because junk will get hit, and hit hard, in a declining bond market (think of junk bonds as the “subprime” of the bond market). Yes, junk pays a good yield, but in a rising rate environment it’s not worth the incremental risk.

How to Get Short Junk Bonds: Restricted for Subscribers.

How to Put on a Long Investment Grade/Short Junk Spread:
Restricted for Subscribers.


Play 3: Shift Exposure in US Stocks Out of “Yield Proxy Sectors.” (Know the difference between high-yielding sectors and truly defensive sectors).

If bonds and stocks keep falling, sector selection is going to become very important, and knowing the difference between truly “defensive” sectors vs. sectors that pay big dividends will matter for performance.

We provided the specific defensive sectors we like to paid subscribers in a report last week.

Play 4: Get a General Hedge Against “Risk Off.”

For over a year now we’ve used a specific inverse ETF as a broad hedge against a “risk-off” move in stocks, as this ETF has direct, specific exposure to some of the weakest sectors of the market, and as such can cushion any broad declines in the markets (like we saw in August/December 2015 and in January/February 2016).

We provided this specific ETF to subscribers once again in a report last week.


To be clear, I’m not advocating taking any of these steps right now, as it’s simply not clear that the bond market has indeed turned. So, we have to be wary of (another) head fake in this multi-year bull market.

But, if the bond market does turn and 10-year Treasury yield moves towards 2%, it is important that advisors have a plan before the declines start, because things could get ugly quickly.

If you don’t have a morning report that is going to give you the plain-spoken, practical analysis that will help you navigate the BOJ and Fed decisions tomorrow, and help you get positioned properly to outperform into year end, then please consider a quarterly subscription to The Sevens Report.

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Best,
Tom

Tom Essaye
Editor, The Sevens Report