Renewed Rotation Risks (Smart Money Is Getting Defensive)

What’s in Today’s Report: Recent Sector Performance Points to Smart Money Getting Defensive

Did the Last 48 Hours Make the Fed More Hawkish?

What’s in Today’s Report: Did the Last 48 Hours Make the Fed More Hawkish?

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Investors will need to see economic data that remains goldilocks

“With stocks sitting on record highs investors will need to see economic data that remains ‘goldilocks,’ the absence of any hawkish Fed surprises, steady yields, good retailer earnings, and solid guidance from AI bellwether Nvidia to meaningfully advance beyond current levels,”  Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report said in a note to clients.  

The key is whether the data warrants a hike

“The key is whether the data warrants a hike and there’s virtually nothing in the day that implies a hike is needed,” Sevens Report Reserach’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s.

Gasoline supplied was the most important figure in the release

Gasoline supplied was “the most important figure in the release as it is a key, high-frequency proxy for consumer gasoline demand and ultimately consumer sentiment and a gauge on general willingness to spend discretionary money,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Bullish

Is Investor Sentiment Getting Too Bullish?

What’s in Today’s Report: Is Investor Sentiment Getting Too Bullish? Why the FOMC Minutes Weren’t Hawkish.

No relation to the recent geopolitical tensions

Analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter that the crash was deemed to be “an accident and had no relation to the recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which allowed for some of the fear bids added on Friday ahead of the weekend to come unwound” at the start of Monday’s trading.