What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview
- ECB Decision Takeaways (The Outlook for Europe Continues to Improve)
Futures are sharply higher thanks to a big rally in European markets, which rose on the hopes for more stimulus.
The rally in Europe didn’t come because of any new headlines, and instead appears to be a delayed reaction to the bigger than expected ECB QE program, combined with the passage of the German stimulus earlier in the week.
Economically, the only notable number was German Factory Orders which fell –25.8% vs. (E) -20%.
Today the focus of markets will be the jobs report, and the estimates for job adds and the unemployment rate are as follows: Job Adds: -7.725M, UE Rate: 19.8%.
Practically speaking, anything less than 10 million job losses likely doesn’t cause a pullback in stocks, while a number under 5 million job losses could extend today’s early rally, because markets are still solely focused on the incremental changes in economic data, not the historically bad absolute values. The only other notable economic report today is Consumer Credit (E: -$14.0B).