If There’s No Trade Deal Should We Rotate to Value?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • If There’s No U.S./China Trade Deal, Should We Rotate to Value?  No.  Here’s Why.
  • EIA/Oil Market Update

Futures are flat following conflicting U.S./China trade headlines as the “noise” on this topic reaches a peak as senior-level talks begin today.

Positively, the Trump administration appears ready to grant permanent waivers for U.S. companies to send non-sensitive components to Huawei.

Negatively, the South China Morning Post said the lower-level talks earlier this week didn’t go well.

The U.S./China headlines will dominate markets today and tomorrow.  Broadly speaking, a trade “truce” that results in no more additional tariffs (and hopefully removes the tariffs expected to go into effect) is still the market expectation.  Regarding the conflicting headlines, the easiest way to cut through the noise is this: If the Chinese delegation leaves before Friday night, that’s bad.  If they leave after, that’s good.