FOMC Preview (What’s Expected/Hawkish If/Dovish If)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- FOMC Preview (What’s Expected/Hawkish If/Dovish If)
Futures are little changed ahead of today’s CPI report and following a night of generally positive economic data.
Economically, UK wages rose less than expected (7.2% y/y vs. (E) 7.7%). Contributing as another sign that global disinflation is still ongoing. German ZEW Business Expectations, meanwhile, beat estimates (12.8 vs. (E) 9.2).
Earnings were underwhelming, however, as ORCL fell –8% on disappointing revenues.
Today focus will be on the CPI report and expectations are as follows: CPI (E: 0.0% m/m, 3.1% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 4.0% y/y). Bottom line, a smaller than expected increase should fuel a solid rally even with the Fed looming tomorrow while a larger than expected increase could cause a sharp pullback, as a bounce back in inflation is absolutely not priced into stocks or bonds at these levels.
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