Tom Essaye, the founder of the Sevens Report, was more cautious, however, commenting:
‘At this point, markets have priced in and are expecting stimulus near term, so if that really does not happen…’ Click here to read the full article.
“At this point, markets have priced in and are expecting stimulus near term, so if that really does not happen by the…” for risk assets, wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
The bottom line is that the market does expect something more” from the central bank, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s latest newsletter. That doesn’t mean more quantitative easing, but “it does mean some sort…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. futures are trading tentatively higher amid renewed stimulus optimism and mostly upbeat economic data while the COVID-19 pandemic continues to hit grim milestones.
Lawmakers continue to negotiate the $908B stimulus package but multiple sticking points remain (including the total size of the bill and lack of stimulus payments), preventing a deal for now.
Among other headlines, COVID-19 deaths have topped 300K in the U.S. but vaccine optimism is helping offset the grim statistics while Chinese economic data firmed in November, as expected.
Today, there are a few economic reports to watch: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 5.8), Import & Export Prices (E: 0.3%, 0.3%), and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) which could move markets, especially depending on sentiment towards a stimulus deal.
Finally, the December FOMC meeting begins today but with the announcement and press conference coming tomorrow, market focus will largely remain on the ongoing stimulus negotiations.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following reports that the stimulus bill might be broken up into two parts (with the larger part passing before year-end).
Congress is going to try and pass two stimulus bills, the first a $750 billion-ish relief bill, and after that, a 200 billion-ish bill that deals with stickier issues of state funding and COVID liability. The market is rallying on this news because it increases the chances of near-term stimulus (although even if this happens, and it’s not a done deal, it’s already priced into stocks).
Economic data was sparse as EU Industrial Production was in-line with estimates at 2.1% vs. (E) 2.0%.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers so stimulus headlines will drive trading. The key will be Pelosi as she’s not been in favor of a two-part bill before, so her support (or not) will be critical to the chances of stimulus actually happening. Bottom line, if she’s for it, expect a further rally. If she’s not, expect stocks to turn negative on the news.
Overall, the fundamental backdrop for the oil market is “mixed with ominous coronavirus trends being offset by vaccine optimism, while faltering economic growth…” said analysts in the latest Sevens Report Research newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“At this point, markets have priced in and are expecting stimulus near term, so if that really does not…” for risk assets, wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
Semiconductor giant Micron’s (MU) upbeat guidance last week for its most recent quarter was a buy signal on tech stocks, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye says.
“Semiconductors have been on fire and not just from momentum…” Essaye explained. Click here to read to read the full article.
Stocks regressed from record highs Monday as traders took a pause from an end-of-year rally. The Dow fell more than 100 points, or 0.5%, but was still held above the 30,000 level the index first exceeded in late November. Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joined Adam Shapiro and Seana Smith on Yahoo Finance Live to discuss. Click here to watch the the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following Wednesday’s tech-driven declines as markets wait for the ECB decision and more clarity on stimulus and Brexit trade negotiations.
Economic data was sparse overnight, as the only notable report was UK Industrial Production which beat estimates (1.3% vs. (E) 0.3%).
There was no notable news or progress on stimulus (still no deal) or Brexit (still no trade deal) overnight, although the “deadlines” for both events were either moved, or about to be moved, implying that negotiations on both stimulus and Brexit will continue for the coming days (this is what the market expected and already priced in).
Today could be a sneakily busy day with the ECB Announcement (E: € 500 bln Increase in QE), CPI (E: 0.1%/1.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 724K) all coming today.
Regarding the ECB, the risk here is of a “not dovish enough” outcome as they’ve allowed expectations to get pretty high, and if that happens look for mild stock losses and higher yields global bond yields (including Treasuries).
CPI should stay tame at this point, but we’ll be watching this closely going forward. Finally, weekly jobless claims are “noisy” right now because of the Thanksgiving holiday, but the bottom line is markets want to see claims moving lower, and a break below 700k would be a tailwind on stocks.