The odds that the market makes a material move one way or another are…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The key for markets is how quickly the Fed removes the accommodation, because that dictates…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
If there’s a reason for the rally, it’s the growing sense that the Fed won’t…market analyst Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, wrote in a Tuesday email. Click here to read the full article.
How the Fed tapers is the next major variable for this market…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Friday’s rally and following mixed…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
In a matter of weeks, China has introduced harsh regulations targeting wide swaths of its…Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, wrote in a recent note. Click here to read the full article.
The metal has found “key technical support at $4.20…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
This week’s options expiration is likely amplifying the volatility…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce back from Thursday’s declines ahead of Powell’s speech.
There were no new developments in Afghanistan overnight as evacuations continued. The tragedy temporarily hit stocks but it won’t be an ongoing influence on markets.
Expectations for more stimulus from China rose overnight as chatter regarding a Reserve Ration cut grew louder and this, combined with some pre-Powell positioning, are the main reasons futures are higher.
Today the key event is obviously the Powell speech (10:00 a.m. ET) but as a reminder, he won’t announce anything specific regarding tapering (that will come at the Sept 22nd Fed meeting). Instead, the key will be how much Powell discusses the Delta variant as an economic headwind (the more he mentions it, the more dovish the speech will be taken) and if he reaffirms the Fed is getting close to being able to taper QE (which will mean before year-end).
Outside of Powell, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.6% y/y) is the key economic report this morning but as long as it’s much higher than expectations, it won’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest this week’s rally.
Chinese shares saw profit taking (Hang Seng down –2%) and that’s weighing on global stocks slightly, but there was no materially negative news out of China overnight.
Economic data was sparse as the German Gfk Consumer Climate slightly missed expectations (-1.2 vs. –1.0) while the Euro Zone money supply met estimates (up 8.1%).
Today we do get two economic reports including Jobless Claims (E: 340K) and revised Q2 GDP (E: 6.6%) but neither number should move markets unless they are major surprises. Instead, pre-Powell speech positioning will likely dominate markets today (Powell’s speech is tomorrow) and given stocks hit new highs this week, don’t be surprised if there’s some mild profit taking ahead of Powell’s speech tomorrow. Finally, in the bond markets, there’s a seven year Treasury auction mid-day today, and if the results are soft look for a continued rally in the 10 year yield (and an improving technical outlook for that yield).
Thank You!
I wanted to say a heartfelt, “Thank you” to all of you who sent me condolences and well wishes over the past week.
While I wish I could respond to each individual email or call, there have literally been hundreds of them, and if I took on that endeavor I’d have no time to write the Report! I believe that continuing to stay focused on the
markets and helping us to navigate this unprecedented time successfully is the best way I can show you my thanks, and you can count on me to do just that.
Again, thank you all. You have made this time easier.