Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on October 25, 2021

S&P 500, Dow Notch Record Highs Ahead of Tech Earnings

Companies have cited margin issues and supply chain disruptions, but so far managements have…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Valuation Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Valuation Update
  • Gold Market Update: Breakout or Breakdown?

Futures are indicating an open at fresh record highs and international markets traded higher overnight as earnings continue to top expectations and economic concerns fade.

There were no notable economic reports or market-moving headlines overnight outside of more mostly upbeat earnings.

Looking into today’s session, there are several reports on the housing market due out early: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.3%), and New Home Sales (E: 760K), but the most important economic release to watch today is Consumer Confidence (E: 109.0) as a disappointing print could weigh on consumer spending expectations into year-end.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The risk to equities is a soft outcome as that could rekindle the hawkish policy concerns that weighed on risk assets this past Friday.

Finally, earnings remain the main focus of the market right now and several big companies are due to report today including: UPS ($2.52), GE ($0.41), and SHW ($2.07) before the open, and AMD ($0.67), MSFT ($2.06), GOOGL ($23.13), V ($1.53) after the close.

Earnings and Tax Clarity but Fed Uncertainty?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings and Tax Clarity but Fed Uncertainty?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key Inflation Data on Friday
  • Weekly Market Preview:  The Most Important Week for Earnings

Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend and ahead of the most important week of earnings season.

Regarding Fed tapering, Powell’s comments on Friday were taken as slightly hawkish, but the consensus outlook remains a November taper at $15 bln/month.

There was no notable news/progress from Washington over the weekend on the debt ceiling/spending bill.

Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers (they’re entering the “quiet period” ahead of next week’s meeting).  So, focus will be on any updates from Washington on whether or not we get tax hikes and on earnings, although the vast majority of the biggest companies report later in the week.  Some reports to watch today include  FB ($3.20), LOGI ($1.14), OTIS ($0.73), and KMB ($1.66).

Tom Essaye Quoted in News Nation USA on October 8, 2021

Big Tech’s Stocks Have Bounced Back. But They’re Not Out of The Woods Yet.

If tech is facing headwinds, then the S&P 500 itself will have a hard time rallying since…wrote Tom Essaye of Sevens Report in a note last week. Click here to read the full article.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on October 20, 2021

The S&P 500 Makes a Comeback. The Funk Is Coming to an End.

Earnings season has been better than expected so far and that has been the main driver of the…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article. 

Yield Curve Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Yield Curve Update

Futures are little changed following a night of mixed earnings and economic data.

Earnings overnight were disappointing with SNAP (down 20%) and INTC (down 3%) posting disappointing results, although they aren’t hitting the market broadly.

Economic data was mixed as UK flash PMI beat estimates (56.8 vs. (E ) 54.0) while the Euro Zone PMI slightly missed expectations (54.3 vs. (E ) 55.2).  But, neither number is materially moving markets.

Today the key economic report is the October Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 60.7) and markets will want to see continued stability in the economic recovery.  We also get two Fed speakers, Daly (10:00 a.m.) and Powell (11:00 a.m.), although we do not expect anything incremental regarding tapering expectations (everyone now expects tapering to start in November).

On the earnings front, three notable reports we’ll be watching today are: AXP ($1.78), HON ($2.01) and SLB ($0.36).

Why the Fed Could Hike Rates Sooner than Expected

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel – Why The Fed Could Hike Rates Sooner than Expected
  • Oil Market Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the recent bounce following disappointing earnings overnight.

Earnings overnight were negative on balance as IBM missed on revenues while TSLA, LVS, and PPG also posted disappointing results and saw selling afterhours.

Today focus will be on economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports will be Jobless Claims (E: 300K), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 25.0), and Existing Home Sales (E: 6.030M), and markets will want to see stability in the data (so not too hot and not too cold).  We also get two Fed speakers, Waller (9:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (9:00 p.m. ET).

On the earnings front, results have become more mixed lately so markets will continue to focus closely on earnings.  Some reports we’re watching today include: T ($0.78), AAL (-$1.04), FCX ($0.78), LUV (-$0.27), SNAP ($0.08), INTC ($1.11) and WHR ($6.16).  As has been the case, strong margins amid rising costs will be the key metric in the results.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bolly Inside on October 18, 2021

US stocks rise, bonds fall on inflationary bets

The issues that caused the pullback have quieted over the past…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on October 19, 2021

Oil futures finish at multiyear highs as Russia’s offer to boost natural-gas supplies may come with a catch

Bottom line for oil, futures just notched their eighth-consecutive weekly rise and prices are technically…the Sevens Report analysts said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on October 18, 2021

U.S. Stocks Extend Rebound as Oil Pares Back Gains: Markets Wrap

The issues that caused the pullback have quieted over the past two weeks, which has…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.