Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on June 10, 2021

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise, S&P 500 hits record despite hotter-than-expected inflation data

In the past two months, everything the market priced in has essentially happened. COVID is effectively over here in the United States, we’re not getting…Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 9, 2021

Colgate-Palmolive Rises, Wendy’s Falls, and Stocks Aren’t Doing Much

A sense of trader paralysis grips global markets ahead of key catalysts due in…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Why Treasury Yields Keep Falling

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Treasury Yields Keep Falling

Futures are slightly higher on some mild infrastructure optimism.

A group of 10 bipartisan Senators reached a compromise on an infrastructure bill worth about $1T total that includes $600 billion of new spending over 5-8 years and contains no corporate tax hikes.   But, this compromise is still very unlikely to ever become law, mainly because the spending is paid for via an increase in the gas tax, which Democrats have previously been against.

Economic data underwhelmed as UK Industrial Production (1.3% vs. (E) 1.2%) and UK GDP both missed estimates.

Today focus will be on Consumer Sentiment (E: 84.0) and specifically inflation expectations, and if we see a big rise in the one and five year inflation expectations that could cause a rally in Treasury yields, which would pressure stocks.  However, barring that event, the path of least resistance for markets right now is higher.

Infrastructure Outlook: Good/Bad/Ugly

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Infrastructure Outlook:  Good/Bad/Ugly
  • Oil Update & EIA Analysis (Can the Rally Keep Going?)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night and ahead of the week’s two big events, the ECB decision and U.S. May CPI report.

Economic data was sparse although Japanese PPI rose more than expected at 4.9% vs. (E) 3.8% yoy.  But, investors expect high inflation readings this month so it’s not moving markets.

Today the two key events are the ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) and U.S. CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.6% y/y).  Generally speaking, if the ECB is specific on tapering and core CPI runs close to 4.0% yoy (expectations are for 3.4% yoy in Core CPI) then we should expect volatility as the data will imply less central bank accommodation and more inflation. Conversely, if the ECB is vague on tapering and inflation largely meets expectations, then stocks can extend the rally.

The other notable event this morning is Jobless Claims (E: 369K) but given the issues with the labor market are supply driven (people not wanting to work) the market isn’t as focused on jobless claims any longer.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on June 8, 2021

Oil futures climb back to more than 2-year highs, with U.S. prices above $70 a barrel

The market just had a strong feel to it once things stabilized after an early session washout to the downside. It’s almost as if the overnight run to… said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 8, 2021

Wendy’s Joins the Meme Stocks, Marvell Is Rising, and Tech Stocks Are Gaining

Stock futures are wavering between gains and losses this morning as traders digest mixed economic data and look ahead..writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in TheStar on June 7, 2021

AMC drama exposes risks in index world

For index investing, the appeal is that human decision-making, human emotions are taken out of it. That works all well and good until a stock that is supposed to be…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “the Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in KITV News on June 7, 2021

Dollar doldrums are back as inflation worries heat up

The market still views the Fed as the ‘most dovish’ global central bank, and as long as that’s the case, the dollar will have…said Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 7, 2021

Biogen Rises, Tellurian Gains, and the Stock Market Isn’t Doing Much

The major equity benchmarks weren’t moving much amid underwhelming economic data and as…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Why the JOLTS Report Matters to Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the JOLTS Report Matters to Markets

Stock futures are little changed this morning while overseas markets were down modestly overnight as a sense of trader paralysis grips global markets ahead of key catalysts due in the back half of the week.

Economically, Chinese PPI hit 9.0% vs. (E) 8.3% in May, the hottest reading since 2008, however, May CPI was 1.3% vs. (E) 1.5%, keeping inflation fears relatively subdued.

There are no market moving economic reports on the calendar for today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak however the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

The Treasury auction could move markets today but only if there is a big surprise in the results as markets are more likely to continue to churn into tomorrow’s CPI report and ECB Announcement.