Is It Time to Allocate to Growth?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Start of 2023 Isn’t the Time to Allocate to Growth
  • Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Indices
  • Chart: Value Massively Outperformed Growth in 2022

Stock futures are modestly higher in cautious trade this morning with Treasuries largely steady and overseas markets mixed as focus remains on China’s reopening efforts.

China’s government will resume the issuance of passports and visas while Hong Kong dropped PCR testing requirements for travelers, however the rapid move away from “Zero Covid” is beginning to rekindle inflation worries which could become a renewed headwind on equities.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Pending Home Sales (E: -0.5%) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -6) but neither should impact Fed policy expectations or meaningfully move markets in quiet holiday trading.

There are no Fed speakers to watch today but the Treasury will hold a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and following yesterday’s large move higher in yields, surprisingly strong or unexpectedly weak demand could influence equity market trading.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on December 21st, 2022

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Oil prices end higher after drop in U.S. crude inventories

“Specifically, despite skyrocketing cases and reports of stressed hospitals, Chinese authorities are not locking down cities and that implies continued increases in energy demand as the world’s second largest economy comes back online,” said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 21, 2022

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Dow Soars 500 Points as Consumer Data Adds Some Cheer

“Stocks are digesting the declines of the past two weeks and while there are some notable employment and inflation numbers looming on Thursday and Friday, the bottom line is the calendar into year-end should be mostly quiet, again barring any material surprises,” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.

A Positive Scenario for 2023

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – There’s a Positive Scenario for 2023, Too
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Focus on Jobless Claims

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets higher while the dollar is lower in risk-on trading this morning following more positive reopening news out of China.

China will end its eight day quarantine for inbound travelers on January 8th and scrapped international flight limits in the latest move away from Covid-Zero which is bolstering the outlook for global growth in the months ahead and markets are responding favorably to the news.

Today, there are three economic reports due to be released: International Trade in Goods (E: -$97.0B), Case Shiller Home Price Index (E: -1.2%), and FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.5%) but none of them should meaningfully impact the outlook for Fed policy and therefore are likely to have a limited impact on stocks.

There are no Fed speakers today but the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If demand is weak and yields rise following the auction, that could weigh on equities as it would be a mildly hawkish signal from the fixed-income market as we approach the end of the year.

 

Sevens Report Q4’22 Quarterly Letter Coming January 3.

The Q4 2022 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Tuesday, January 3.

Especially given all the volatility in 2022 and continued challenges for markets, we think the start of the year is a critically important time to communicate with clients and prospects.

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little-to-no work from you).

You can view our Q3‘22 Quarterly Letter here.

If you’d like to learn more or are interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Is the Yield Curve Already Forecasting a Fed Rate Cut?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Yield Curve Already Forecasting a Fed Rate Cut?

Futures are slightly higher following a quiet night of news as investors digest Thursday’s declines and look ahead to the long weekend.

Economically the only notable report was Japanese CPI and it came in slightly lower than expectations at 3.7% y/y vs. (E) 3.8% y/y. but it didn’t move markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports are, in order of importance: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.6% y/y), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.1), Durable Goods (E: -0.8%) and New Home Sales (E: 600k).   Markets will want to see further confirmation of dis-inflation in the Core PCE Price Index and the Five Year Inflation Expectations in the University of Michigan report, and if that happens it could spur a mild rally following yesterday’s declines.

Economic Breaker Panel

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • December Economic Breaker Panel

Futures are slightly lower following a disappointing earnings report by Micron (MU).

Micron (MU down –3% after hours) reported underwhelming results and guidance and announced layoffs, and that’s reversing some of the earnings-driven gains we saw in stocks on Wednesday.

Economic data remained sparse but UK GDP slightly missed estimates, falling –0.3% vs. (E) -0.2%.

Today’s focus will be on Weekly Jobless Claims (E: 225k) and this number needs to move higher (towards 300k) to show the Fed that the labor market is returning to better balance (something the Fed said is needed before they can think about a pivot).  We also get the Final Q3 GDP (E: 2.9%) but that data is very old now (July-September) and it shouldn’t move markets.

 

What the BOJ “Rate Hike” Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the BOJ “Rate Hike” Means for Markets (Possible a Positive)

Futures are moderately higher following better-than-expected earnings overnight.

Both Nike (NKE up 12% after hours) and FedEx (FDX up 4% after hours) posted better-than-expected earnings overnight and those results are helping to ease rising anxiety about 2023 earnings.

The only notable economic report was German Gfk Consumer Climate and it was in line (–37.8 vs. (E) -37.5).

Today the calendar stays quiet (it picks up tomorrow) but the focus will be on Consumer Confidence (E: 101.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.2M) and the key for data will remain moderation (but not a collapse that implies looming stagflation).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 19th, 2022

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Stocks Fall to Start the Week as Recession Worries Linger

“A lot of people are throwing in the towel on the year, for lack of a better word, and you’re seeing people sort of remove some of those hopeful year-end bullish bets,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Research, told Barron’s on Monday. Click here to read the full article.

Five Market Questions That Need to be Answered in 2023

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Market Questions That Need to be Answered in 2023 (And Which Answers are Positive or Negative)

Futures were volatile overnight but are now little changed following the Bank of Japan’s shock announcement of an effective interest rate increase.

The BOJ announced that it is widening the trading band on the 10 year Japanese Government Bond to 0.00% – 0.50% from the previous 0.0% – 0.25%.  This amounts to a 25 basis point rate hike.

Economic data was positive as German PPI fell more than expected (-3.9% m/m vs. (E) -2.2%) in what is another sign of global dis-inflation.

Today there is one economic number, Housing Starts (E: 1.4M), but that won’t move markets.

Instead, focus will be on the fallout from the BOJ surprise “ rate hike.”  Bottom line, markets dropped late last week and yesterday in part on higher global bond yields (following the hawkish ECB announcement) so this rate hike by the BOJ is another headwind and I’d not be surprised to see stock decline modestly on this news today, barring any positive surprises.

The Key Influence on Markets as We Approach 2023

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Key Influence on Markets as We Approach 2023
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Economic Data Help Stop the Selling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Core PCE Friday the Key Report

Futures are slightly higher on a mild oversold bounce following last weeks’ losses and a quiet weekend of news.

China announced the closing of schools in Shanghai on Monday in response to surging COVID cases, but the broader economic reopening remains on track.

Economically, the German IFO Business Expectations Survey was higher than expected (83.2 vs. (E) 82.0) as was UK Industrial Trends (-6% vs. (E) -9%) but neither number is moving markets.

Today the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) and markets will want to see continued moderation in the data (housing remains a major contributor to high CPI so more progress on that front will be a mild positive).