Sevens Report: Oil Market Faces Record Surplus Despite U.S.-China Trade Truce

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Tyler Richey warns crude prices could fall to mid-$30s as 2026 supply glut looms.

An oil supply glut could sink prices to $35 a barrel next year. Why the U.S.-China trade truce won’t change that.

While President Trump’s trade truce with China offered a brief dose of optimism, Sevens Report Research warns it won’t offset an impending record oil surplus. Co-editor Tyler Richey told MarketWatch that the deal “does not change the current physical market math,” which still points to a 2026 supply glut averaging 4 million barrels per day, according to World Bank and IEA data. Richey cautioned that WTI crude could drop to the mid-$30s if forecasts hold, echoing the 2010s OPEC price war. Despite the tariff resolution, oil prices barely moved, as analysts see little change in supply-demand dynamics. Richey said only a major geopolitical shock or a global growth surge could shift the bearish outlook, noting fundamentals “remain tilted in favor of the oil bears.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Warns of Rising Risks as S&P 500 Breadth Weakens

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Tom Essaye cautions that half of S&P 500 stocks are down YTD despite record-level index.

Why risks of a stock-market drop are rising amid extreme concentration in the S&P 500, Sevens Report warns

Nearly half of S&P 500 stocks are posting year-to-date losses even as the index trades near record highs, according to Sevens Report Research. Founder Tom Essaye warned this divergence signals growing market fragility. “That is not so healthy,” he said, noting the risk of another sharp “air pocket” drop or a broader April-style pullback is rising daily. The top 10 S&P 500 companies now make up 40.5% of the index—surpassing the concentration seen during the 2000 tech bubble. Essaye also flagged weakening market breadth, with the NYSE Advance-Decline Line hitting a 12-week low and only 53% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, the lowest since June.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 31st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Fed Caution, AI Bubble Warnings, and Trade Tensions Shape Market Mood

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Tom Essaye warns of rising correction risks as the Fed tempers rate-cut expectations.

Navigating the Aftermath: Market Outlook Post-Declines Amidst Trade Truce and Rate Uncertainty

September 2025 marked the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle with a 25-basis-point reduction, but optimism quickly faded. In early October, warnings of a potential “AI bubble” intensified, with Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautioning that a burst could drag the S&P 500 down 10%–20%. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also warned of a possible sharp correction.

By October 29, the Fed cut rates again to a 3.75–4.00% range, but Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion” cooled expectations. The cautious tone, combined with ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and Trump’s tariff threats, weighed on sentiment.

Tech giants like Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet remain at the center of investor focus as their valuations drive market direction. Meanwhile, analysts and policymakers alike are watching whether Fed policy, AI enthusiasm, and trade diplomacy can keep markets stable through year-end.

Also, click here to view the full article on WRAL.com published on October 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: Powell’s Hawkish Tone “Not Bearish” for Stocks

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Tom Essaye says AI enthusiasm and trade stability outweigh Fed uncertainty.

Powell’s warning won’t derail the stock-market rally, maintains this strategist.

The Sevens Report, authored by former NYSE trader Tom Essaye, dismissed the idea that Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments Wednesday are bearish for equities. Powell’s remark that a December Fed cut is “not a foregone conclusion” sharply lowered market odds of a 25-basis-point cut—from over 90% to near 55%, which Essaye called “a coin flip.” Still, the report argues the bull case for stocks remains intact. Essaye cites four reasons: the Fed could still ease, Powell didn’t signal the end of rate cuts, AI optimism remains strong, and U.S.-China trade stability has improved. Essaye emphasized AI as the dominant driver, noting Powell’s remarks “don’t reduce the tailwind on risk assets.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Gold ETFs Plunge but Tom Essaye Says It’s Just a ‘Bump in the Road’

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye and major banks maintain bullish long-term outlook despite sharp correction.

Gold ETFs Suffer a Rout Over Past Two Days: Buy the Dip

Gold prices suffered their steepest two-day decline in years, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) down nearly 7% as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a stronger dollar triggered profit-taking. However, analysts say the drop is likely temporary. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research told Yahoo Finance the pullback is “just a bump in the road,” noting that high inflation, low real yields, geopolitical risks, and a potential U.S. government shutdown remain strong tailwinds. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both reaffirmed bullish targets, with BofA eyeing $6,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and Goldman forecasting $4,900 by late 2026.

Also, click here to view the full article on The Globe and Mail published on October 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Research founder interviewed on Yahoo Finance discussing Apple’s comeback in the AI race

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The bulk of earnings season is here as Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance

Apple nears $4T market cap. Is it catching up in the AI race?

Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Ines Ferré and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye join Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss Apple’s comeback in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on October 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Earnings Season is Here: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

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The bulk of earnings season is here as Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance

What earnings are telling investors: Don’t bet against US companies

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Allie Canal and Ines Ferré weigh in on what the latest round of earnings is signaling to investors.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on October 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: Markets Expect ‘Cooler Heads’ to Prevail in U.S.-China Trade Tensions

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Sevens Report says tariff threats are unlikely to weigh heavily on stocks unless a full-scale trade war erupts.

Markets believe U.S., China will find trade compromise – Sevens Report Research

According to Sevens Report Research, investors remain largely unfazed by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, with markets betting that both sides will ultimately compromise. Tom Essaye noted that while President Trump’s tariff threats and Beijing’s export limits on rare earths have raised concerns, optimism ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping has kept sentiment stable. Essaye said “scary headlines” are unlikely to drive markets lower as long as traders believe a full-blown trade war can be avoided. For now, stock direction remains more influenced by economic growth and AI enthusiasm.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on October 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: 10-Year Yield Recovery Key for Stock Market Stability

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Sevens Report says credit fears at regional banks are unlikely to sustain yield declines unless they worsen.

10-year Treasury yield edges up after falling below 4% on regional-bank worries

The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4% Friday after dipping below that level amid renewed concern over regional bank loans. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research said that while credit fears briefly drove yields lower, they are unlikely to keep falling unless the issue becomes a broader economic problem. He added that a move back above 4% would be a positive signal for stocks, reflecting easing market anxiety.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Jamie Dimon’s “Cockroach” Warning Puts Credit Markets on Watch

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Recent bankruptcies raise concern over broader economic stress, with Sevens Report highlighting the Baa-over-Treasuries spread as a key risk gauge.

What to Watch for Signs of Broader Credit Market Stress

Jamie Dimon’s remark that “when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more,” referencing the bankruptcy of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, has sparked new worries about hidden credit-market stress. Alongside the collapse of auto-parts maker First Brands, investors are questioning whether these cases are isolated or signs of broader weakness. According to Sevens Report analysis, the key metric to monitor is the Baa-over-Treasuries spread, a measure of risk in high-yield credit. A move toward 2.00% from the current 1.72% would signal rising systemic stress and increased downside risk for equities.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on October 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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