“A vaccine would be a bullish game changer, and stocks reacted accordingly,” Tom Essaye, author of “The Sevens Report” newsletter, wrote in a note. “But one day doesn’t make a sustainable…” Click here to read the full article.
According to Tyler Richie, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, “The report is weighing on optimism that the global economy would swiftly recover after being effectively closed for…” Click here to read the full article.
Despite the drop in active rigs, the EIA on Wednesday showed domestic oil production “perfectly unchanged” at 12.2 million barrels per day, “relative to the corresponding…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“The oil market is sending a bold warning that economic growth may not recover nearly as quickly as some equity investors would hope,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, in a Tuesday note to clients. “The S&P 500 is pricing a relatively quick return to a normal economy…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, says investors have a clear playbook for Wuhan.
“From a market standpoint, since this disease is closely related to SARS, I think the market…” Essaye says. Click here to read the full article.
Between the lines: That likely paints the Fed into a corner in addressing the program at its meeting tomorrow, Tom Essaye, director of Sevens Report Research, says in a note.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following a quiet night of news as markets continued to digest that the actual text of the phase one trade deal largely meet expectations.
Economic data was sparse as the only report was German CPI and it met estimates at 1.5% yoy.
Today focus will be on economic data and earnings, as there are several important economic reports including (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.3%), Philly Fed (E: 3.4), Jobless Claims (E: 214K), and Housing Market Index (E: 75). There is also one Fed speaker, Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.
On the earnings front, results have been mixed so far this week, and focus will turn more towards earnings now that phase one is a done deal. Some important reports we’ll be watching today include: MS ($0.98), SCHW ($0.64), BK ($0.99), TSM ($0.72), CSX ($0.97), PPG ($1.35).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat and international markets were little changed overnight amid very quiet newswires while investors look ahead to today’s Fed decision.
Economically, the Japanese PPI release was the only report out overnight and the headline met expectations at 0.2% which did not move markets.
In the energy market, oil futures are down nearly 1% after the API reported an inventory build of +1.4MM bbls vs. (E) -2.8MM ahead of today’s EIA report.
Today, the focus will be on the Fed decision with the Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and the Fed Chair Press Conference following shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Any significant market moves before the Fed are unlikely but there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: 0.2%), and the EIA report at 10:30 a.m. ET could trigger a reaction in the energy market which could affect sector trading.
Beyond those catalysts, the trade war remains the single biggest influence on this market right now so investors will be looking for any incremental developments regarding the Dec. 15 tariff plans or news on a phase one trade deal.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally higher as better than expected economic data is being offset by some confusion on trade.
Global manufacturing PMIs were better than expected as the Chinese (50.2 vs. (E) 49.5) and Euro Zone (46.9 vs. (E) 46.6) readings beat estimates and furthered the idea that the worst of the global slowdown is over.
On trade, headlines were mixed as Axios reported the Dec. 15 tariffs will be delayed (a positive) although a somewhat hawkish Trump trade tweet this morning is weighing on sentiment (Trump reinstituted steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina and that’s causing an uptick in general tariff anxiety in the market).
Today focus will (of course) remain on any trade tweet or headline, while the key economic report is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.4), and the stronger the number, the better.
