Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report noted that “very strong data would incur more Fed hawkishness while really soft data would spike stagflation concerns — and ‘moderating’ was just what we got from the ADP jobs report.” Click here to read the full article.
Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases, because it would signal the labor market remains very tight…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. Click here to read the full article.
In a morning note, market analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report pointed out retail customers are buying less high-margin merchandise (like apparel and electronics) to instead spend more on lower-margin food (like bread and eggs), and also shifting spending away from brand names to cheaper private labels—signs that “consumers are starting to…” to read the full report, click here.
In a note on Monday, Tom Essaye, the founder of market research firm the Sevens Report, said he’s watching three major shifts that have to occur to help him determine when stocks have bottomed, and how to know when they’ve happened. He counts people at firms like UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Charles Schwab as readers of such insights in his daily reports.
To start the year, we knew that central bank tightening would make for a challenging market, but that has been compounded by two surprise events: The Russia/Ukraine war (no one expected that in January) and Chinese lock-downs (it’s quasi-shocking the Chinese are still adopting these policies and crushing their economy)…wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower as markets digest Wednesday’s big post-Fed rally following a night of underwhelming economic data.
The April Chinese services PMI plunged to 36.2 vs. (E) 41.1, reflecting the economic damage from lockdowns. In Europe, data was mixed as German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates while UK Services PMI beat expectations.
There are multiple Fed speakers today on financial media outlets (there are no official speeches scheduled) and don’t be surprised if they sound hawkish and push back on the post FOMC rally yesterday (this is especially true for Bullard, whose doing interviews today).
Today’s focus will be on the aforementioned Fed speakers, and again don’t be shocked if they sound “hawkish” and that causes some giveback from yesterday’s rally (but a hawkish tone won’t undo the positives from Powell’s press conference, either).
Economically, there is a BOE Rate decision and they are expected to hike 25 bps. Domestically, the key report today is Unit Labor Costs (E: 6.8%) as that will give us a good look at total wage inflation (and if it’s higher than estimates that will be a negative). We also get Jobless Claims (E: 178K) but that shouldn’t move markets.
Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye discusses if the market has hit its lows of the year or if there is still more to come on Fox Business’s “The Claman Countdown.” Click here to watch the interview.
While major stock market indexes plunged as much as 2% Tuesday, analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report warned clients he remains “cautious” on the S&P 500 as stocks struggle to stabilize, pointing to “relentless selling” on Friday as a potential predecessor to a sharp downturn of as much as 5%. Click here to read the full article.
Growth scares will cause a temporary decline in yields but unless there’s a real threat of a global slowdown (which there isn’t yet) then the direction of global yields remains higher, and we again think it’s just a matter of time until the 10-year yield hits 3%…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a research note. Click here to read the full article.
Additionally, a geopolitical fear bid remains in the market and demand is expected to remain elevated leaving the path of least resistance decidedly higher with a medium-term upside target of $9.06…analysts at Sevens Report Research said in Monday’s newsletter, MarketWatch reports. Click here to read the full article.
