June CPI Shows Early Tariff-Driven Inflation Signs

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Sevens Report says tariff pressures may be emerging in inflation data

Tariff Impact Starts to Show in June CPI Report

TARIFFS START TO BITE?

June’s CPI data came in mostly as expected — but Sevens Report flagged one critical detail: tariff price pressures may already be appearing.

  • Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% est.)
    Driven by higher energy costs from Middle East tensions.

  • Core CPI: +2.9% YoY (in line with forecast)
    But up from May, suggesting an uptick that caught investors’ attention.

“There was enough in this report to keep alive concerns that tariffs will stoke inflation.” — Sevens Report

While the report doesn’t eliminate hopes for a Fed cut later this year, September is now far less likely.

Markets were flat at first — but as investors digested the data, stocks began to slip.

Bottom line: This CPI report was “no worse than feared,” but it’s the first real sign that Trump’s tariff policies are starting to ripple through prices — and the next wave of duties is just weeks away.

Also, click here to view the full article published in agweb.com on July 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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ASX Nears Record Although U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Global Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns Fed may delay cuts until trade policy stabilizes

ASX on track to break record; big miners jump

AUSTRALIAN MINERS SURGE WHILE U.S. POLICY RISKS SIMMER

The ASX is on track to hit a new record as mining stocks jump, but U.S. trade and rate policy remain a source of global market concern.

According to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, Trump’s unpredictable tariff strategy could force the Fed to delay a rate cut beyond September.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by August 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Even if Trump sticks to the current deadline, Essaye warns, markets expect a delay, which pushes rate decisions further into the year.

“The Fed will want to wait a few months to see what impact these new tariff rates have on the economy.”

Essaye also noted a potential political backlash if higher-for-longer rates persist, which could escalate tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Indopremier.com published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stocks Hit Highs as Airlines Lead But Tariff Delays Threaten Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns delayed trade policy could derail rate cut expectations

U.S. Stocks Reach New Highs as Airlines Soar, Trade Tensions Persist

TRADE POLICY CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK DESPITE STOCK GAINS

U.S. stocks reached new highs Thursday, boosted by a rally in airline shares, but analysts are sounding caution as tariff uncertainty lingers.

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, warned that fluctuating trade policies are likely to impact Fed decisions in the coming months.

“The likelihood of a clear tariff policy before August 1 is zero… which means a July rate cut is off the table.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that continued delays in trade clarity reduce the odds of a September cut and increase the risk of a longer high-rate environment.

“That raises the risk of economic slowdown.”

Despite bullish price action, underlying policy risks remain unresolved, keeping markets exposed to macro-driven pullbacks.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on AInvest.com published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Markets Hold Up Despite Tariff Risk, Sevens Report Urges Caution

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Tom Essaye warns a deeper selloff is possible if negative headlines persist

US Stocks End Slightly Lower in Week Roiled by Tariff Headlines

TARIFF UNCERTAINTY LOOMS OVER MARKETS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Friday after a volatile week driven by ongoing tariff headlines. While markets showed notable resilience, the risk of escalation remains very real, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

“Markets have been impressively resilient… but if negative trade headlines continue, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that tariff rates may climb far higher than expected, and the market may be underpricing the potential fallout.

“…because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.”

With investor focus shifting toward the Fed’s next move and earnings season ahead, any further deterioration in trade sentiment could trigger renewed volatility.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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S&P 500 Hits New High, But Delayed Tariff Policy May Block Rate Cuts

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Tom Essaye warns unclear trade policy may prolong high rates and slow growth

S&P 500 Rises to Record as Treasury Sale Goes Well: Markets Wrap

TREASURY AUCTION BOOSTS STOCKS—BUT POLICY RISKS STILL LOOM

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record Thursday as a strong Treasury auction eased market concerns over demand for U.S. debt. But Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautions that persistent tariff uncertainty may soon weigh on investor optimism.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says the real risk lies in the ripple effect: delayed trade policy could weaken the odds of a September rate cut, keeping rates elevated and increasing the chance of an economic slowdown.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

As equities surge, markets may be pricing in too much optimism while ignoring trade-related policy drag that could resurface later this quarter.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Swissinfo.ch published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

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Midyear valuation scenarios show limited upside—and real downside risk if key levels break

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

  • 6,195 = near-term support

  • 6,269 = technical pivot

  • 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

  • Target: 6,600

  • Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

  • Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

  • A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

  • Target range: 4,675–4,950

  • Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

  • Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

  • Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stock Futures Dip as Tariff Pressures Build — Sevens Report Warns of Long-Term Risks

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Tom Essaye on why markets may be ignoring the true cost of rising global tariffs

Stock futures point to declines as investors face tariffs ‘much higher than anything in decades’

After a strong finish last week, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest declines Monday morning as investors began to confront the growing scale of global tariffs.

According to Sevens Report Research, markets may be underestimating the long-term impact of the tariff wave—one unlike anything seen in decades.

“Tariffs are already coming in higher than markets expected and much higher than anything in decades.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Founder Tom Essaye pointed to new trade deals and policy changes across major economies:

  • Vietnam just signed a deal with 20% baseline tariffs and 40% tariffs on rerouted goods

  • China: 30% tariffs

  • UK: 10% tariffs

  • “A soon-to-be host” of other countries are following suit

Despite this, the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, with momentum continuing to push stocks upward. But Essaye cautioned that these risks are compounding beneath the surface:

“While the path of least resistance is higher… there are real risks building in the distance.”

He also noted that while the recently passed tax and spending bill may provide near-term stimulus, it will increase the national deficit in coming years—adding another layer of risk for investors to consider.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on July 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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