Investors Are Pricing in a Soft Economic Landing – Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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Tom Essaye says equities have room to run amid earnings growth optimism.

Stocks Close at Record, Nudged Higher as Cook Buys Nike Shares

“Investors are pricing in a soft economic landing with conviction as we approach the year-end,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. He said that “equities have room to run amid optimism surrounding the potential for strong earnings growth in the quarters to come.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: December Strength Usually Comes Late in the Month

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History shows early December choppiness often gives way to a strong year-end rally.

12/22/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

Seasonal reversals like the one seen this November are far from unusual, according to Sevens Report Research. Analysis from Sevens Report shows that in more than 70% of Decembers since 1950, markets have experienced a weak or choppy first half followed by stronger gains into year-end.

December remains one of the market’s most reliable months overall. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher nearly three-quarters of the time, giving it the highest historical win rate of any month. However, Sevens notes that most of those gains typically come late.

Returns through the tenth-to-last trading day of December average just 0.1%, meaning the bulk of the month’s upside historically occurs during the final two weeks, coinciding with the Santa Claus rally. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac confirms a similar pattern.

Given these persistent seasonal trends, Sevens Report Research continues to favor maintaining exposure to large-cap and technology stocks into the end of the year.

Also, click here to view the full article on TheGlobeAndMail.com published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: AI Trade to Split as Winners and Losers Emerge

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance the next phase of the AI trade will show sharp performance separation within the Mag 7, with Alphabet his top pick.

Breaking out the ‘selective scalpel’: Wall Street sees AI stock trade as intact

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Yahoo Finance he expects to see winners and losers within the group heading into next year.

“I think we’re going to see some pretty massive bifurcation,” Essaye said.” The next evolution of this trade, where there are going to be winners and losers within the Mag 7.”

He said that his favorite stock is Alphabet because of the growth prospects for Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence product.

“I think companies like Oracle that are not overextended financially, but are sort of raising eyebrows with a lot of the spending that AI, I think that companies like that could struggle,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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S&P 500 Rises After BOJ Hike Seen as ‘No Worse Than Feared’

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Tom Essaye says the BOJ’s rate hike eased investor worries, helping tech lead gains.

S&P 500 Notches Weekly Gain as Tech Stocks Lead Rally

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level in 30 years overnight. The move was “no worse than feared” and helped push equities markets modestly higher, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote Friday morning.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: December Stock Gains Come From Late-Month Strength

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Seasonality favors the back half of December more than early trading.

This chart suggests Santa rallies typically pick up late in December

A new Sevens Report analysis highlights that December’s strong historical returns in the S&P 500 are overwhelmingly concentrated in the final two weeks of the month—not the first. Citing Ryan Detrick’s 75-year data, December has delivered a 1.4% average gain with a 73% win rate, making it the strongest month of the year.

Sevens noted the front half is usually choppy, and this year is no exception, with the S&P 500 slightly negative through mid-month. The report credits lighter volumes, fund positioning, year-end flows, and anticipation of the Santa Claus rally for late-month strength.

Still, Sevens warned the trend isn’t guaranteed and should be viewed as a helpful tendency—not a certainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: Gold Holds Bullish Bias After Less-Hawkish Fed

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Tom Essaye says the Fed decision supports year-end upside, but key levels matter.

Gold: After Post-Fed Boost, Keep These Key Levels in Mind

While not a bullish gamechanger, the net impact of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be to support a year-end rally and the reason is clear: The Fed wasn’t as-hawkish-as-feared. On the charts, gold remains rangebound between support at $4,200 per ounce and resistance at $4,400, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Commodities were mixed for most of the day Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed meeting. However, the less-hawkish cut the FOMC delivered sparked risk-on money flows in afternoon trade that saw economically sensitive industrial metals and energy futures outperform. Gold turned positive but lagged on the session.

Still, it lurched higher in after-hours trade to up 0.48% in part because the Fed announced a 30-day bond buying spree totaling $40 billion. Risks are still skewed to the upside in the direction of the dominant, primary uptrend that’s been in place all year.

Technical View: Gold market volatility has picked up in Q4 with risks of intermittent, deeper pullbacks elevated. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

  • Primary Trend: Bullish (since the week of Nov. 27, 2023)
  • Key Resistance Levels: $4,290…$4,344…and $4,398
  • Key Support Levels: $4,134…$4,045…and $3,941.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on December 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Says Venezuela Tanker Seizure Won’t Spike Oil Prices

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Tyler Richey sees geopolitical risk rising, but limited impact unless exports are disrupted.

U.S. seizes oil tanker off Venezuela. Why one analyst says it’s ‘a smart move.’

Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said in an email Wednesday that disruptions to Venezuelan oil “would add another factor to the already present geopolitical fear” that has rattled the oil futures market for more than a year.

“The wild card to watch is whether or not Guyana’s oil production growth is impacted due to disputes over offshore oil resources” with Venezuela, Richey said. However, “barring a material impact on Venezuelan oil exports or Guyana oil production growth expectations, the price impact on oil should be limited.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on December 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Hassett Fed Talk Adds Fuel to Dovish Market Expectations

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Sevens Report says stocks are rising on Fed-cut hopes — but warns bond markets see real risks.

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Stocks have extended a two-week rally as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have surged from under 50% to nearly 100%. According to the Sevens Report, that shift began with dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and a run of softer labor and inflation data.

But the firm highlighted a second catalyst behind the market’s bullish rate bets: President Trump’s near-confirmation that he intends to nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair. Among the finalists, Hassett is viewed as the most dovish, leading investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance once he takes over in mid-2026.

Still, Sevens cautioned that a highly dovish chair is not an automatic positive. While stocks cheered the development, bond markets reacted in the opposite direction. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points last week, reflecting concerns that an overly soft approach could revive inflation — echoing the stop-and-go policy mistakes of the 1970s under Arthur Burns.

Sevens emphasized that Hassett has not shown any inclination to jeopardize Fed independence, but warned that even the perception of political pressure could push Treasury markets lower and yields higher. The firm noted that maintaining the Fed’s independence is “far more important for supporting equities” than whether end-2026 policy rates land at 3.625% or 2.875%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Flags Bond Market Unease Over Possible Hassett Fed Pick

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Stocks welcome dovish signals, but fixed-income markets are growing cautious.

Why Kevin Hassett’s appointment to the Fed chair isn’t automatically bullish for bonds

The Sevens Report highlights that falling rate expectations are being driven by more than just incoming data. Tom Essaye points to speculation around Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for Fed chair as a key influence behind recent market behavior.

While equities have reacted favorably to the prospect of a more dovish Fed, the bond market has responded far more defensively. Essaye notes that fixed-income investors are uneasy about the risk that an aggressively dovish chair could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially allowing inflation pressures to re-emerge.

That concern appears to be showing up in yields, which backed up after briefly dipping below 4%. Although Essaye stresses there is no evidence that Hassett would compromise Fed independence, uncertainty alone has been enough to inject caution into bond markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

Bitcoin price today: BTC bounces back to $88,500 after sharp dip below $84,000

Bitcoin’s latest slide caught investors off guard, occurring just days after the cryptocurrency briefly rebounded from the $80,000 level. The move largely reflected profit-taking, thin liquidity, and broader macro uncertainty that weighed on risk assets.

“Bitcoin remains a hyper-volatile, speculative asset. It still moves in sync with risk appetite. When markets tighten, Bitcoin falls harder,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article on Businessupturn.com published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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