Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The Market’s Just Waiting For The Light To Turn Green

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The Stock Market Is at a Stop Light. Wall Street Awaits ‘Green Light’ on Iran, Inflation.

“We really are at a little stoplight on the drive higher, and the market’s just waiting for the light to turn green on Hormuz and on CPI, and then I think the rally will resume,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

For the market, the on-again-off-again nature of supposed talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have become a “nuisance” for markets, Essaye says, though he thinks Wall Street sees an agreement as inevitable. In the meantime, WTI crude oil futures were up 1.3% to $83.20 a barrel.

“That’s not on the forefront of the market’s radar, but it should be,” Essaye says. “Because if we get a hot CPI tomorrow, they’re going to take a run toward 5%, probably by the end of the week. And that would be a new negative for markets.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Earnings Growth Is Really Acting As A Massive Support For The Market

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Tech Stocks Slide Again Ahead of Key Inflation Reports

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that Wall Street is viewing the mixed signals over the key energy shipping choke point as “a nuisance.”

“All the market cares about is transit through the Strait getting back to normal, and that is going to happen,” says Essaye. “This sort of mindless delay that we’re going through, and back and forth, is now just sort of an annoyance more than anything else.”

The attention will turn to inflation starting with the Wednesday release of the consumer price index for July, followed the respective update on wholesale prices on Thursday. Essaye doesn’t expect the data to spark a broader stock market swoon.

“The earnings growth is really sort of acting as a massive support for the market, so for that to be overcome, we have to have really significantly negative macro risks,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “And they’re just not there.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Argues The Risks Will Be Worse In The Case Of A Too Hot Report

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Dow and Nasdaq Head in Different Directions

Wall Street is holding its collective breath ahead of tomorrow’s July nonfarm payrolls report. The threat of higher interest rates have traders holding out hope for a report that’s not too hot, but not too cold, either. Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye argues the risks will be worse in the case of a “too hot report.”

“A very strong jobs report could boost wage-driven inflation fears, which could cause the 10-year yield to rise (that would clearly be a headwind on stocks),” Essaye writes. “Conversely, even if the jobs report is soft (and the August release can sometimes be), it’s just one bad labor market indicator (while all the rest are showing stability).”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Calls It A Measurable Warning Signal

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Frequent Intense Market Fluctuations Mark 2026

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey calls the dispersion a measurable warning signal.

Analysts disagree about what this actually means. Tyler Richey from Sevens Report Technicals calls it a “measurable market warning signal.” He points out that prior instances are “all associated with periods of elevated broad market volatility, lasting market tops beginning to be established.”

Also, click here to view the full article on Briefs Finance published on July 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Described The Central Banker As “A Very Glib Man”

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Review & Preview: Warsh’s Credibility

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told me it felt like Warsh was lecturing market participants about his plans to dial back communication and reshape the central bank. Essaye described the central banker as “a very glib man.”

“I’m not saying that he’s not going to be the greatest Fed chair in the world—maybe he will be—but you’ve introduced a radical change to one of the most important parts of the market,” Essaye said. “It’s not a game. People are trying to not lose money. And we’re trying to manage where interest rates are going, so it just seems to me like a very radical communication alteration.”

Essaye adds that Warsh “lost a little bit of inflation credibility” from the bond market, where some traders are concerned that rising inflation caused by the Iran war could be challenging for the central bank to navigate. Odds of a hike were north of 30% just 20 minutes before the Fed released its decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 28th, 2026

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Dow Rises, But Nasdaq Drops on Global Chip Selloff

“A heavy selloff in Asian chipmakers, including in a ~10% drop in the South Korean KOPSI index, is dragging broader equity markets lower amid valuation and capex worries,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Today, focus is likely to be on whether the pre-market selloff in tech stocks accelerates or stabilizes as trading gets underway on Wall Street.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 28th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye | Investors Will Be Looking For Goldilocks Data

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Dow Opens Higher, but Heads for Third-Straight Weekly Decline

“There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Two Conditions Must Be Met For A Rebound | Tom Essaye

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[New York Stock Market] Falls on Middle East Tensions…Semiconductor Stocks Attract Bargain Buying

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, also analyzed that for the market to rebound, two conditions must be met: strong earnings from major technology companies and clear signs of stabilization in the Middle East.

Also, click here to view the full article on The Asia Business Daily published on July 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Suggested Investors Will Be Looking For Strong Earnings

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Nasdaq 100 Jumps 1% as Chip Stocks Rebound Before Big Tech Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter, suggested investors will be looking for strong earnings, continued demand, and evidence that technology companies are maintaining discipline rather than accelerating the current competition in AI-related component spending.

Also, click here to view the full article on GuruFocus.com published on July 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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