The market may react with a “sell the fact” scenario

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The market may react with a “sell the fact” scenario: Tom Essaye Quoted in GuruFocus

Trade Uncertainty Looms Over S&P 500 Despite Recent Gains

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, noted that the Trump administration has significantly weakened the April 2 tariff statement, delaying implementation and exempting key import categories such as chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. Although the market has recovered losses post “Liberation Day,” the S&P 500 is still down 3.9% for the year despite a nine-day rally, the longest since November 2004.

Essaye warns that when a trade agreement is finally announced, the market may react with a “sell the fact” scenario. Although trade tensions appear to be easing, new tariffs remain higher than January levels, posing growth headwinds.

Essaye suggests shifting to defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare for risk mitigation. He also recommends diversified investments through the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and favors low volatility funds like iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV) and high-quality stock funds (QUAL).

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MSN GuruFocus, published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The “more forceful” a signal of a rate cut in June “the better

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The “more forceful” a signal of a rate cut in June “the better: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Investors likely to focus on potential Fed June rate cut guidance – Sevens Report

In a note to clients, the Sevens Report analysts said the “more forceful” a signal of a rate cut in June “the better”, adding that they will also be noting how U.S. President Donald Trump reacts to the Fed’s latest decision.

“It is widely known and expected that the Fed won’t cut rates [in May], but despite that being the consensus expectation, the lack of action may draw the wrath of President Trump,” the Sevens Report analysts wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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More S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs

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The primary negative influences on copper: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

More S&P 500 stocks trade below 200-day moving average than 50-day moving average

“The fact that more S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs continues to support the case that the rally off the April 2025 lows remains a countertrend move in an otherwise still downward-trending market,” Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals, wrote in a Monday note.

Using the 2022 bear market as a guide, a test of the 50% level in the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are trading above their 200-day moving average “should not come as a surprise ahead of another washout as initial attempts to find a bottom in this bear market commence,” Richey wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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A ‘sell-the-news’ move

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A ‘sell-the-news’ move: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investor’s Business Daily

Dow Jones Breaks Winning Streak On Trump Tariff Move; Nvidia, Tesla Fall As Palantir Sinks

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, cautioned that much of Trump’s backtracking on tariffs may already be priced in.

“A ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced” may lead to some more volatility, Essaye said in a note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Investor’s Business Daily article featured on MSN, published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver

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Gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Gold Prices Are Crushing Silver. Why That Could Change Soon.

More typically gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver, according to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, a markets newsletter. That means silver has room to catch up. “If history is a guide, the next phase of the precious-metals rally could belong to silver, not gold,” he wrote last month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement

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The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why the stock rally may be in trouble after the White House ‘backtracked’ on tariffs

The U.S. stock market has already priced in backtracking on the large and sweeping “liberation day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, making it difficult for the market to keep up its recent rally, according to Sevens Report Research.

“The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement, including a delay while negotiations take place and exempting major categories of imports,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Monday. As an example of tariff exemptions, Essaye pointed to computer chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

“The reality of the past month post-‘liberation day’ hasn’t been as bad as feared and the market has recouped those losses,” said Essaye. “However, I do not think these events are enough to sustainably propel the S&P 500 forward and I am sticking to my general 5,100-5,500-ish range.”

Investors, worried that large tariffs will place a drag on the U.S. economy while increasing the cost of goods for consumers, have been monitoring the White House’s negotiations with its trading partners. But with backtracking on tariffs already priced into the market, Essaye cautioned that “we could even see a ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The primary negative influences on copper

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The primary negative influences on copper: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Here’s what this real-time barometer says about tariff-induced recession risks rising

“Recession worries and lack of concrete progress in trade relations between the U.S. and China remain the primary negative influences on copper,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter.

They said the “primary trend in copper is not one of higher or lower prices, but of volatility, which highlights trade-war uncertainty and an elevated sense of angst among global investors.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally

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There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” keep the S&P 500 above 5,500? Strategist weighs in

According to Sevens Report, “there were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally, including (in order of importance): De-escalation of the trade war with China, de-escalation of the Trump/Powell feud, rising anticipation for the announcement of numerous trade deals, and solid Q1 earnings.”

However, Sevens Report cautioned that “none of these events are materially bullish,” and warned that while “still-negative sentiment helped the S&P 500 temporarily break through 5,500 on some good earnings or further trade de-escalation briefly, I do not think the news has turned good enough to sustain a rally.”

“Trump understands that firing Powell would hammer markets, so he (probably) won’t try it, but that doesn’t mean the negative headlines are done,” Sevens Report said.

They added, “The Fed meets next on Wednesday, May 7, and the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates at that meeting and that could draw Trump’s ire.”

On the trade front, Sevens Report noted that while tariff reductions are better than escalation, “the baseline level of tariffs will be much higher than it was in January and that will be a headwind on growth and a tailwind on inflation.”

Looking ahead, Sevens Report stated, “it is very unlikely that 2025 S&P 500 EPS expectations stay at $270,” suggesting that “a $10/share reduction to $260 (or even lower) seems more appropriate.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Is the stock market overvalued? Investors look for ‘economic damage’ from tariffs

Investors are hoping trade deals that reduce tariffs may be announced soon, which would help inform whether the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

“‘How much economic damage have tariffs done?’ is one of the most important questions for investors right now because if the answer is ‘a lot,’ then this market is still substantially overvalued,” Essaye said in a note Monday. “If the answer is ‘not too much’ and tariff reduction occurs, then the case can be made for a sustainable rally (as long as we get consistent policy).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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