Sevens Report: Gold and Silver Drop After Unsustainable Parabolic Run

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Tom Essaye says last month’s precious-metals surge broke under its own weight.

Gold, silver losses ease after ‘disturbing’ safe haven sell-off

Gold and silver prices stabilized Monday after a violent selloff that reversed a parabolic rally and caught many investors off guard. According to Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, the breakdown was inevitable given how stretched prices had become.

Essaye said the speed and magnitude of last week’s gains left the precious metals market vulnerable to a sharp correction. Once selling began, momentum flipped quickly as traders recognized that the recent advance was detached from sustainable fundamentals.

While the move was dramatic, Sevens views it as a technical reset rather than a signal that the broader bullish case for precious metals is broken. The firm has consistently cautioned that steep, momentum-driven rallies often end abruptly once confidence cracks, especially in crowded trades.

From here, price stability and consolidation will be key in determining whether gold and silver can rebuild upside momentum or remain vulnerable to additional volatility.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on February 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

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Tom Essaye interviewed on Yahoo Finance

Gold prices plunge: ‘The dam broke’ amid Trump’s Fed announcement

Gold prices (GC=F) have been plunging as the precious metal kicks off the first trading week of February below $4,800 per ounce. Currently, silver (SI=F) hovers above $81.

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré comment on the recent bout of volatility working its way through precious metals commodities.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on February 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Warns Weaker Dollar Is Supercharging a Run-Hot Economy

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Sevens says Trump-linked dollar weakness is amplifying growth and inflation risks.

How Trump creates another ’run-hot’ influence on the economy

The latest Sevens Report argues that the U.S. economy is being pushed further into a “run-hot” phase as the dollar slides to multi-year lows. According to the firm, President Trump’s dismissal of recent dollar weakness effectively signaled tolerance — if not support — for further depreciation, accelerating trends already in place.

Sevens notes that fiscal stimulus, pressure for lower rates, deregulation, and efforts to pull in foreign capital have already tilted the economy toward overheating. A weaker currency compounds that backdrop by ensuring more liquidity is chasing a limited supply of goods and services, keeping inflation pressures elevated even as growth remains strong.

The report outlines three key transmission channels. First, a softer dollar raises import costs, lifting prices on consumer goods in an import-dependent economy. Second, it boosts earnings for multinational companies, helping explain recent outperformance in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Third, it inflates the value of real assets such as gold, oil, and other commodities that cannot be diluted like fiat currencies.

Sevens cautions that the dollar’s roughly 11% decline over the past year is far from benign. While markets have absorbed the move so far, a faster slide toward the low 90s could unsettle investors and intensify the risk of sustained inflation alongside resilient growth.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on January 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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I Think It Would Help Sentiment – Says Tom Essaye

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I think it would help sentiment, says Tom Essaye

Review & Preview: It’s Only January?

“If we could go a weekend without some sort of tariff threats, or arresting of a foreign leader, or threatening to bomb Iran—if we could go a couple of days, I think the market would appreciate it,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told me. “I think it would help sentiment a bit and let us refocus on the data—which is pretty Goldilocks—and earnings, which, on balance, are fine.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on January 30th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Warns Against Complacency as Earnings Season Ramps Up

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Sevens Report Warns Against Complacency as Earnings Season Ramps Up

Investors may be led into a trap as stock market discards new tariff threats, analyst warns

As markets brush off renewed tariff threats and push higher, Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research is cautioning investors not to assume the path forward is risk-free.

Essaye says the resilience in stocks following recent policy volatility risks creating complacency just as earnings season enters its most important stretch. While investors appear confident that solid earnings and steady economic growth will offset political uncertainty, Essaye argues neither factor should be taken for granted.

According to the Sevens Report, the opening phase of earnings season has been underwhelming, even if outright disappointments have been limited so far. With the next two weeks representing the core of reporting season, Essaye says results will matter more than headlines and could challenge the market’s optimistic tone.

On the economic front, Essaye notes that growth remains firm but warns that a strong backdrop does not make the economy immune to pressure. Persistent affordability issues could still slow momentum, particularly if earnings expectations begin to soften.

The takeaway, Essaye says, is that investors should resist the temptation to believe stocks will automatically rebound from every setback. If doubts emerge around earnings or growth, today’s calm market could quickly become far more fragile.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Flags Risk of Sharp Reversal in Natural-Gas Prices

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Tyler Richey says futures structure and weather trends argue the rally may fade fast.

Natural-gas prices doubled in the last 5 trading sessions. Here are signs a ‘sharp collapse’ may soon unfold.

With the February natural-gas futures contract expiring at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, it will be “critical” to watch the price of the March contract, which is trading at a roughly $2.50 discount to the February contract, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That leaves the “futures duration curve in a steep backwardation dynamic” — meaning the current price is higher than prices for contracts for delivery further out in the future, Richey told MarketWatch.

The higher near-term prices and lower prices for contracts for delivery in the months ahead also suggest the rally in the February futures contract is based on near-term supply concerns, and “not any longer-term structural market worries of a prolonged supply shortage,” said Sevens Report’s Richey.

At the same time, weather models are forecasting more moderate temperatures in the coming weeks, which should theoretically see the rally in natural-gas prices “subside, assuming there is no lasting damage impacting domestic natural-gas production [and] logistics,” said Richey.

“That could set futures prices up for a sharp collapse in the sessions ahead,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The Natural-Gas Market Is Primed For Volatility In The Near Term Says Sevens Report

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Warmer weather could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices extend their rally, but analysts warn of volatility tied to this week’s contract expiration

The natural-gas market is primed for more volatility in the near term, “with multiple dollar price swings” possible as icy and snowy weather continues to pound the eastern part of the U.S. and as below-average temperatures are expected to linger this week, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “But the prospects of warmer weather in early February could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas, with its futures market traditionally one of the most volatile in the entire commodity complex,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Warns Early-2026 Inflation Signals Are Flashing Red – Business Insider

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Tom Essaye says sector leadership and market rotation echo the painful setup of 2022.

The stock market is flashing a signal that inflation may be poised to spike

Early market action in 2026 is sending a cautionary signal on inflation, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who says investors may be underestimating the risk of a difficult year ahead.

Essaye notes that energy and materials stocks have surged more than 9% year to date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s modest gain. Historically, strength in these sectors has often preceded broader inflation pressures, as higher energy and materials costs filter through supply chains and lift prices across the economy.

In Essaye’s view, the move is especially notable because it has received little attention from market participants so far. He argues that energy prices influence nearly every component of global commerce, while materials costs quietly add upward pressure to inflation through higher input expenses. Together, their strong performance is not something investors should dismiss as the first quarter unfolds.

Adding to the concern is a clear shift in market leadership. Essaye highlights a rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks and toward value, small caps, transportation stocks, and equal-weight indexes. Recent outperformance in benchmarks like the S&P 500 equal-weight index, the Russell 2000, and value-focused ETFs suggests that capital is moving toward areas that often lead during more inflationary or unstable periods.

That combination of sector leadership and early-year money flows reminds Essaye of the setup in early 2022, a year that proved especially damaging for traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios. While he is not calling for an immediate downturn, Essaye cautions that these dynamics raise the risk of a repeat scenario if inflation pressures continue to build.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on January 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Natural Gas Is Clearly In A Weather-Driven Market Dynamic Says Tyler Richey

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The fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices see ‘historic’ surge as U.S. braces for winter storm. What that means for heating bills.

To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be “an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday’s newsletter. “Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: Why Rising Yields Drove the S&P 500’s Worst Day Since October

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Sevens Report: Why Rising Yields Drove the S&P 500’s Worst Day Since October

S&P 500 has its worst day since October. Here’s why stocks were down.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.293%, but “it’s not really a problem until 4.50% and higher,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report on the markets. “If yields keep rising, that will become an increasing headwind on markets and the economy.”

“The Goldilocks economic data continued last week, and that has been an important foundational positive and somewhat calming influence on markets amidst the recent headline chaos,” Essaye said. “As long as economic data stays this Goldilocks, the chances of a protracted decline in stocks will remain low.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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