Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared on Bloomberg Radio on November 19, 2018
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared on Bloomberg Radio on November 19, 2018. Listen to the full audio clip here.
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Nasdaq on November 20, 2018
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Nasdaq on November 20, 2018. Read the full article here.
Is the Corporate Bond Bubble Bursting?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Pullback Update: Why we think the 2650-2850 trading range is still intact.
- Is the Corporate Bond Bubble Bursting?
Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following a generally quiet night.
Italy will be in focus today as the European Commission will issue a decision on the resubmitted budget and rejection is likely. Positively, however, there were some reports Italy would be open to negotiation on the proposed budget, and that helped fuel the bounce this morning.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today should be a generally quiet day as travel picks up for the Thanksgiving holiday. But, that said, there are three notable economic reports this morning: Durable Goods (E: -2.5%), Jobless Claims (E: 215k), Existing Home Sales (E: 5.21M). Bottom line, tech remains key in the short term. If Nasdaq and FDN can bounce, stocks can recoup some of the week’s losses.
Everyone please have a happy and safe Thanksgiving!
Why Stocks Dropped (Again)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday
- More Housing Trouble?
- Are “Gassy” MLPs a Buy?
Futures are moderately lower on momentum as Monday’s U.S market declines spilled over globally and international weakness is now weighing on futures.
Economically it was another quiet night as German PPI met expectations at 3.3% while UK Industrial Trends were better than expected (10 vs. (E) -5).
There was no new news on the Fed or U.S./China trade although expectations are rising for a Trump/Xi “truce” at the G-20 and a more dovish tone from the Fed.
Today will be another quiet day, at least based on the calendar, as we have no Fed speakers and just one economic number: Housing Starts (E: 1.24M). Given that, focus will remain on tech and the super cap names specifically. FDN needs to stabilize and bounce to help arrest this short term sell off and that ETF is now at the top of my quote screen, as it’s driving the markets in the very short term.
Four Keys to a Bottom (Some Progress Achieved)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Four Keys to a Bottom – Some Progress Achieved
- Weekly Market Preview (Busy Despite the Holiday)
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (All About Flash PMIs and Housing).
Futures are marginally lower following a very quiet weekend as markets digest the Thursday/Friday rally.
There were no new developments on the Fed or U.S./China trade over the weekend so markets will start this week looking for something to further the recent positive momentum on both topics.
Economically, Japanese exports slightly missed estimates at 8.2% vs. (E) 9.0% but that’s not moving markets.
As mentioned, markets will be looking daily for any comments that reinforce the dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida on Friday and apparent improvement in U.S./China trade (Trump was positive on this Friday afternoon). But that said, today should be pretty quiet as there is just on economic report, Housing Market Index (E: 68.00), and one Fed speaker, Williams (9:40 a.m. ET, 10:45 a.m. ET, 3:15 a.m. ET).
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on November 15, 2018.
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on November 15, 2018. Read the full article here.
Technical Update
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Technical Update
- Economic Data Recap
- EIA Analysis and Oil Update
US futures are down roughly 0.5% this morning thanks to soft earnings after the close yesterday, most notably by NVDA (the company’s shares fell nearly 20% overnight). Otherwise it was a relatively quiet night of news.
Oil is up over 1% this morning on optimism surrounding a potential OPEC-cut, but serious technical damage has been done on the charts this week, and right now, the medium term outlook is neutral at best for energy.
Economically, the only data point released overnight was Eurozone HICP which matched estimates at 2.2% y/y and is not materially affecting the euro or longer term outlook for the ECB.
Today, there is one important economic report to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and two Fed speakers: Clarida before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) and Evans just before lunch (11:30 a.m. ET).
Otherwise, focus will be on tech shares today as if the bad earnings from NVDA weigh on the sector more broadly, then stocks will have a hard time extending yesterday’s bounce.
On the charts, yesterday’s close of 2730 in the S&P is an important level to watch as a close above would be a positive development for the near term technical outlook.