A Surprising Sentiment Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Surprising Sentiment Update

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news and ahead of several economic reports today.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

After two quiet days in the market, today brings a busy calendar of economic data and Fed speak.

Economically, there are numerous reports today including, in order of importance,  Jobless Claims (E: 238K), Durable Goods (E: -0.5%). Final Q2 GDP (E: 3.3%) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million).  With the Fed now cutting rates, the stronger the data, the better (especially for jobless claims).

Turning to the Fed, there’s a parade of speakers today but none of them are Fed leadership.  Nonetheless, their general tone on future rate cuts will matter and the more dovish the commentary, the better.  Speakers today include: Goolsbee (8:20 a.m. ET), Schmid (9:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Barr (1:00 p.m. ET), Logan (1:40 p.m. ET) and Daly (3:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings continue and some notable reports today include: ACN ($2.98), JBL ($2.81), COST ($5.82).

 

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Valuation a Problem for the Market (Yes & No)
  • September Flash PMI Takeaways

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s Powell-induced declines with tech leading as MU reported solid Q3 earnings while BABA announced a $50B AI investment overnight.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey disappointed across the board with the headline Business Climate down to 87.7 vs. (E) 89.1.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 649K) and one Fed official scheduled to speak: Daly (4:10 p.m. ET).

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction (11:30 a.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET) today, and as has been the case recently, the results have the potential to move fixed income markets/Fed policy expectations and ultimately could impact stocks.

Additionally, there are a few more noteworthy earnings releases due out today including: CTAS ($1.19), THO ($1.16), KBH ($1.50).

 

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New ETFs to Watch and AI-Bubble Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Bubble Signs? OpenAI and NVDA Partnership
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are little changed as traders digest mixed EU Flash PMI data and await fresh comments from Fed Chair Powell today.

Economically, the EU Composite PMI Flash rose to 51.2 vs. (E) 50.9 with the Services Index notably rising to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.5 however the Manufacturing index disappointed.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch in the U.S., both of which will print shortly after the open: PMI Composite Flash (E: 53.0) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -10).

The Fed’s speaker circuit will remain fairly busy today with Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) speaking this morning before focus will turn to commentary from Powell (12:35 p.m. ET) mid-day.

Additionally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bond yields and ultimately impact equities if there are any surprises regarding demand metrics (the stronger the demand the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings reports continue to trickle in with notables reporting today including AZO ($50.52) and MU ($2.69).

 

Sevens Report: Q1 Stock Rally Shows Classic Dow Theory ‘Bull Trap’

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Transports’ weakness undermines Industrials’ record highs

Decoding Modern Bull Traps: A Dow Theory Perspective on Market Sentiment and False Signals

The Sevens Report said the Dow’s record-setting first-quarter rally fits the mold of a classic “bull trap” under Dow Theory. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new highs, the Dow Jones Transportation Average remained negative year-to-date—a divergence Charles Dow viewed as a warning of waning economic momentum.

The lack of confirmation from transports, which track logistics and shipping demand, suggests that market optimism may be misplaced. Sevens cautioned that without both averages advancing in tandem, the rally risks unraveling.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Flags ‘Bull Trap’ in Stocks Under Dow Theory

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Transports’ weakness signals risk despite record highs

Charles Dow would describe this market as a ’bull trap’ says this analyst

The Sevens Report warned Friday that the U.S. stock rally fits the definition of a “bull trap” under Dow Theory. While the Dow Industrials have hit new highs, the Dow Transports remain negative year-to-date, flashing a bearish divergence.

The note cited two key principles: Confirmation and Trend Reversals. Both indexes must rise together to confirm expansion, but transports’ weakness suggests pressure in travel, logistics, and freight.

Sevens emphasized that despite four of five major equity benchmarks hitting records, Dow Theory would still label the advance a technical bull trap.

Also, click here to view the full investing.com article on Yahoo Finance published on September 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Quoted in AInvest.com

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Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash

FedEx Earnings to Provide Clues on Stock Market Rally’s Fate

While the Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash, some strategists argue that it has little merit in the digital age, missing out on the significant role of vertically integrated retailers like Amazon and Walmart that handle their own shipping and delivery. Nevertheless, the Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey suggests that the Dow Theory should be used in conjunction with other indicators to get a full picture of the economy.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Understanding Why Stocks Hit New Highs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Goldilocks Growth and Inflation Data Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: September Flash PMIs Tuesday, Core PCE Price Index Friday are Key Reports

Futures are modestly lower as markets digested last week’s new highs following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Politically, the U.S. government could shut down this Friday and that is weighing slightly on markets, although we don’t view any temporary, partial shutdown as a risk to the rally.

There was no notable economic data overnight.

Today the only economic report is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.19) and it’s unlikely to move markets, so focus instead will be on the Fed.

There are several Fed speakers today and the most important of them is Williams at 9:45 a.m. ET.  If Williams embraces two additional rate cuts this year, that should help support markets.  More broadly, markets will want to see dovish tones from most Fed speakers going forward, confirming the Fed intends several more rate cuts.  Other Fed speakers today include: Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET).

 

What Would Charles Dow Say About This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Charles Dow Say About This Market?

Futures are little changed as investors digest Thursday’s new highs and await results of the Trump/Xi phone call.

The BOJ made no change to rates, as expected, but the decision was hawkish as two members voted for a rate hike and that is weighing modestly on Japanese shares.

Economically, data largely met expectations as Japanese CPI, UK Retail Sales and German PPI were in-line with expectations.

Today focus will be on the Trump/Xi phone call (approximately around 9:00 a.m.) and if a broader trade deal with China is announced it’ll be an additional market positive.  Beyond trade headlines, there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Daly at 2:30 p.m. ET

 

What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets (A Vote for the Run Hot Economy)

Futures are moderately higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digest Wednesday’s rate cut and the prospect of even lower rates in the future.

Economic data underwhelmed overnight as Japanese Machine Orders dropped (–4.6% vs. (E) -3.5%) while Australian employment fell –5,400 vs. (E) 22k.

Today we get a rate decision from the Bank of England (no change is expected) and some notable economic reports: Jobless Claims (E: 246K), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  With the Fed now cutting rates, stable and solid economic data is needed to support a further rally in stocks.  If economic data begins to roll over, however, that will be a new negative for markets because it’ll imply the Fed waited too long to begin to cut.

On the earnings front, some notable reports include:  DRI ($1.99), FDX ($3.65), LEN ($2.12).

 

Sevens Report Weighs on AI Trade as Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Milestone

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Essaye flags next Big Tech contender for record valuation

Google hits $3T market cap. This Big Tech name could be next.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to discuss the Google parent company’s recent gains and what it signals about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. He also shares another Big Tech name that he thinks could be the next to hit $3 trillion.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.