Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet night of news.
Economic data was mixed overnight as UK Retail Sales missed estimates (-1.4% vs. (E) 1.8%) while both Japanese and German inflation metrics (CPI and PPI) slightly beat estimates.
The Bank of Japan made no change to policy and extended its COVID lending programs by 6 months (as expected).
Today there are no Fed speakers and no notable economic reports so focus will be on the “micro-economic” and whether we see a continuation of the large tech outperformance from yesterday. Also, there is a quadruple witching options expiration today which will cause large volumes (and possibly volatility) into the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting.
The U.S. dollar is surging this morning off the more hawkish than expected Fed and gold is getting hit hard as currency markets re-price for a less dovish Fed.
Economically the only notable number was the Australian Labour Force Survey, which handily beat expectations (115k job adds vs. (E) 30k), reflecting the global nature of the economic recovery.
Today there are two notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 364K) and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index (E: 30.8) but unless either number is a substantial surprise, they shouldn’t move markets. Instead, markets will be watching the dollar and Treasury yields for reaction to the Fed. If both rally hard throughout the day, that will pressure stocks further as it erodes some of the “dovish Fed” support that’s helped the S&P 500 rally to recent highs.
In order for Bitcoin to resume that rally, I think you’re going to need to see more widespread…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader. Click here to read the full article.
Ahead of the data, markets will want to see solid numbers but nothing so hot that it implies the economy…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote. Click here to read the full article.
After nearly a year of anti-climactic FOMC meetings, tomorrow’s meeting has the potential to move markets because it…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Bitcoin is always going to be volatile and the manic run-up we had was never sustainable. The question is…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Even though inflation metrics are high, the pressure is starting to come off and that leaves investors to say…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of the FOMC announcement while economic data disappointed overnight.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data all missed estimates for the month of May which resulted in Asian markets underperforming overnight.
Looking into this morning’s trading session, there are two lesser followed economic reports due to be released: Housing Starts (E: 1.630M) and Import & Export Prices (E: 0.7%, 0.7%) but neither release should move markets with the Fed looming.
The Biden-Putin meeting in Geneva will also get media attention but it is very unlikely to actually impact markets. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress regarding Biden’s budget (10:00 a.m. ET), however, could move markets as she will likely be discussing taxes and any hint of a material hike in capital gains rates or corporate tax rates could weigh on markets even ahead of the Fed.
Today’s main event for the markets will of course be the conclusion of the June Fed meeting with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and then Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. If anything causes tapering expectations to be pulled forward towards September or evidence emerges of plans to raise rates in 2022, that will be viewed as hawkish and cause significant volatility across assets classes. Otherwise, an “as expected” or dovish meeting outcome will likely result in equities continuing to trade at or near all-time highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed this morning as investors weigh dovish central bank developments against in-line inflation data in Europe as focus turns to U.S. data and the Fed.
The RBA minutes revealed policy makers are open to extending QE beyond the current September deadline while CPI reports in Europe all met estimates.
This morning is lining up to be a busy one from a potential catalyst standpoint with a slew of economic data due to be released including: PPI (E: 0.6%), Retail Sales (E: -0.4%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 22.0), Industrial Production (E: 0.6%), and Housing Market Index (E: 83).
The June FOMC Meeting also begins today which will likely initiate a sense of market paralysis ahead of tomorrow’s announcement and Powell’s press conference however a 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET could move Treasuries and ultimately impact stocks in the early afternoon.
